Storm Warning 63, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2007, 11:10 AM AKST (20:10 UTC)

Expired

Jan 1, 2008, 5:00 AM AKST

In force

18 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 010109 AAA
CWFAEG
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
410 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE ALASKA COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE STORM WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 350 NM SW OF
SITKA BY TUE AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY FILLS AND DRIFT NE INTO THE
NORTH EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY THU.  
$$

PKZ041-011400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT
SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ042-011400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT
SUBSIDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ043-011400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT DURING THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT SUBSIDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ051-011400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
410 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING
TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT
SUBSIDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.   
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-011400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007 

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT SUBSIDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 31, 7:35 AM AKST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1235 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE DEVELOPING
STORM CENTER JUST ENTERING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CENTRAL GULF
SPREADING EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
BUOY 46650 NEAR THE LOW REPORTED 980 MB AT 10 AM. THUS THE CENTER
PRESSURE SHOULD BE ROUGHLY AROUND 978 MB. A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRED
THIS MORNING AT SKAGWAY AND ANNETTE ISLAND BUT TAPERED OFF AS OF
THIS WRITING. STRONG FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE POINT ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHEAST
HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXCELLENT INITIALIZATION. THE
GFS WILL BE SELECTED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. NO NEED TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE INHERITED GRIDS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIODS. WILL MAKE A FEW COSMETIC TOUCHES AND KEEP ALL
THE ONGOING WATCHES AND ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE. THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 968 MB THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY THEN
SLOWLY FILLS AND DRIFT NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH EASTERN GULF BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM RANGE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE PCPN
EXCEPT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE PERSISTING COLD AIR LIFTING
THE INCOMING WARM MOISTURE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH 6 PM.

EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOUCHING THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
ZONES 23 AND 27 LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND MOST OF
OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DOWN GRADE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR NEW YEARS DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL OVER THE
INSIDE WATERS TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. AHN

.LONG RANGE...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE AXIS OF THE
CORRESPONDING LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH PAST 30N LATITUDE
AND IS JUST BEGINNING TO TILT IN A NEGATIVE DIRECTION. TWO SHORT
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...KEEPING IT DEEP AND SHARPLY DEFINED. THEN AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A VERY STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST INTO CANADA AND CONUS WHILE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES EARLY
IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES...THE DIXON ENTRANCE...AND
CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
OVER THE REMAINING INNER CHANNELS FOR THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME.

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THICKNESS PATTERNS AND WIND REGIME ARE
LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SLOWLY CHANGING TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY YAKUTAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN COLDER LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH COME ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEXT SUNDAY. COLD AIR SHOULD SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
WEAKENS. THIS SITUATION SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A
SUB-TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGING WITH IT SOME WARMER LOW LEVEL THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUN IS GOOD THIS
MORNING. HENCE NO CHANGES MADE TO WIND OR PRESSURE FIELDS.
UPDATED POP FIELDS AND REFINED TEMPERATURES. HAVE NOT YET TAKEN A
CLOSE LOOK AT SNOWFALL BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE SNOW GRIDS.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HI WND WRNG FOR AKZ023-027 THRU TUE AM.
      ...HVY SNOW WRNG FOR AKZ029 THRU TUE PM.
      ...WND ADVY FOR AKZ017>022-024>026-028-029.
MARINE...STORM WRNG FOR PKZ041>043-310.
      ...GALE WRNG FOR PKZ021-022-031>036.
      ...SCA FOR PKZ011>013.

SJA/FCF

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2007Every storm warning in 2007

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.