Storm Warning 54, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 212007 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG 970 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY AND WEAKEN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN TO 975 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF THIS
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

UPDATED TODAYS SEAS

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

UPDATED TODAYS SEAS 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

UPDATED TODAYS SEAS

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

UPDATED TODAYS SEAS

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.  
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

UPDATED TODAYS SEAS

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE.  
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 212236 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
135 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG 970 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY AND WEAKEN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN TO 975 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF THIS
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1105 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
135 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

UPDATED 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.  
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
135 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE.  
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 220020
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE 973 MB LOW IN NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ041-221400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 50 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23
FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 36 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-221400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-221400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-221400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO
19 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-221400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. S SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1210 PM AST THU DEC 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...
IT SHAKES CONFIDENCE WHEN THE 12Z MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
OF SOLUTIONS IN 24 HOUR PROJECTIONS BUT THATS BEEN THE STORY OF
THIS WEEK. IN THIS CASE THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE SUPERIOR TO
ANYTHING ELSE BY INITIALIZATION. USING THE AK-GFS-40 THE LOW
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS PER SATELLITE INDICATIONS AND
TIMING. BY 00Z SAT THIS CENTER ENDS UP AT MIDDLETON ISLAND WHICH
IS REASONABLE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO MATCHES SATELLITE
POSITION WELL ON THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE AT 40N 167W AT 18Z
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPER WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LONG TERM.

EXPECT HIGH GALES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OUTSIDE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR MUCH OF INNER CHANNELS.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE COAST...STARTING WITH 27 AND 23 AT MIDNIGHT...THEN 22
AND 28 AT 3 AM.  ADDITIONALLY...COLD AIR IS SLOWLY BEING SCOURED
OUT OF THE AREA AS FLOW HAS TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND TURN
TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE NORTH WHERE COLDER AIR SINKING IN FROM CANADA WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE SNOW.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
PARTICULARLY IN HAINES ALONG THE CHILKAT VALLEY.  A WINTER STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL REVIEW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WARNING OR ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

.LONG RANGE...
PATTERN INDICATES STEADY W-SW FLOW INTO SE AK THRU MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE AT LEAST THREE SEPARATE SHORT
WAVES THAT HAVE DIFFERENT WEATHER AFFECTS WITH THEM. HAVE
COORDINATED WITH ANCHORAGE AND VANCOUVER FCSTRS AND PUBLIC AND
MARINE FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS BORDERS.

FIRST WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL HAVE BOTH DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER COASTAL MARINE AREAS...EVEN STORM FORCE IN FAR NORTH ZONE
52. REGARDING PRECIP...CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HAINES AREA
FRI WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED NW FROM THERE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT
ESPECIALLY FOR YAKUTAT ZONE. GFS IS CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE AND
IT DEPICTS VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION ALONG WITH
VERY MOIST AIR...POSSIBLY TAPPED INTO TROPICAL PLUME. END RESULT
MAY BE A FOOT OF SNOW IN YAK ZONE OVER 12-18 HR PERIOD FRI NIGHT.
THIS BEARS CLOSE WATCHING.

SECOND SYSTEM IN THE SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DATELINE AT 160W 38N IS WELL DEFINED BY GFS AND FCST BY MODELS TO
AFFECT SE AK SUN. BECAUSE OF ITS WARM ORIGINS THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A TEMPORARY RAISING OF SNOW LEVEL S AND EAST OF THE LOW
CAUSING FCST ISSUES WITH THE RAIN-SNOW LINE. CURRENT FCSTS LOOK
REASONABLE SHOWING RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW SUN FROM ABOUT SITKA S
AND EAT TO KETCHIKAN. PETERSBURG-WRANGELL ON THE EDGE BUT WITH
COLD OUTFLOW STILL LIKELY FROM EASTERN BC WILL LEAN TOWARD SNOW
WORDING FROM NORTHERN MISTY FJORDS TO CAPE SPENCER AND POINTS N.
EARLY SUN LOOKS TO OFFER A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
ZONES BUT SNOW RETURNS THERE SUN NIGHT AND MON.

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TUE IS FCST TO TAKE SIMILAR TRACK...THAT IS
LOOPING FROM WEST OF CHARLOTTES TO S PANHANDLE COAST THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD. THIS ONE MAY CUT ACROSS PANHANDLE SOUTH OF JUNEAU
INSTEAD OF CONTINUING UP COAST. IF THAT HAPPENS THE RAIN SNOW
LINE SHOULD BE MORE DEFINITE. WET WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SE AK.  TA

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY...ZONES 22-23-27-28 STARTING TONIGHT WINTER
STORM WATCH...ZONE 18 FRIDAY MORNING THRU AFTERNOON
MARINE...GALE...ZONES 22-36-41-42-43-51-52 SMCR...ELSEWHERE