Storm Warning 47, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 210024
CWFAEG
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN
AK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY WED. 
$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. SW SWELL.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO
23 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. 
SW SWELL. SHOWERS.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO
24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 211231
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A HIGH BUILDS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING.  
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING
TO 14 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.  
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING.  
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN IN THE EVENING.  
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE.
RAIN IN THE EVENING.  
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A 1024 MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED
OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A 974 MB LOW ENTERING THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST EFFECTS OF THE ADVANCING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF ARE BEING FELT OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE ADVANCING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT IT IS LIMITING THE PRECIPITATION TO JUST
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE YAKUTAT AREA. THE ADVANCING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ONCE THE AREAS OF FOG IN
THE INNER CHANNELS LIFT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH THE RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SKAGWAY
AREA WHERE A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG LYNN CANAL IS
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND BY MID AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH FOG
FORMING ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION BEING
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES OVERNIGHT NEAR YAKUTAT.
WITH THE ADVANCING WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE
FRONT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR YAKUTAT WILL LIMITED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

USED THE GFS MODEL IN THIS PACKAGE BEING MOST CONSISTENT BETWEEN
THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE FEATURES. THE CHIEF CONCERN FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE BETWEEN THE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF GALES WILL
FORM OFFSHORE AND IN THE NORTHERN GULF. BARRIER FLOW WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT GUSTS ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF CROSS SOUND TUESDAY. PSS

.LONG RANGE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ALONG WITH OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS. SPREADS WITH ENSEMBLES MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS
INCREASE DRASTICALLY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND SO WITH THAT
SAID WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 12ZGFS40 AND THE 12ZUKMET
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF...SO WILL BLEND THOSE TWO MODELS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE GRIDS.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER BC WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST AS A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NW INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
TUE AFTERNOON WILL LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
BE OVER BC BY WED MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OVER SE AK. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS N INTO THE
WESTERN GULF AND PUSH A TROF OVER THE GULF AND THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BC
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS IT
LIFTS NW INTO BRISTOL BAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND INLAND THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WITH 40 TO
45KT OF WINDS WITH THEN POTENTIAL OF HIGHER GUSTS WEST OF ICY BAY
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE WIND ADV LEVEL WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL LAND AREAS FROM PASI NORTHWARD CONTINUING INTO
TUE EVENING BUT AS THE FRONT GOES ALOFT THE STRONG GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH OVER NIGHT. AS FOR PRECIP...THINK MOST WILL FALL IN THE
LIQUID FORM AS THERE WILL BE CONTINUED WARMING WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW A LFOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN PAYA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AT MOST LEVELS. THE INSIDE
CHANNELS MAY BE TRICKY IN PLACES AS WITH THE HIGH IN BC THERE
WILL BE A EASTERLY GRADIENT THAT MAY KEEP SOME COLD AIR IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS. FOR THE MOST PART THE PTYPE WILL BE RAIN AS IT
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AS
THERE WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF THROUGH WED NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON THURSDAY
OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND AGAIN THERE WILL BE A SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE
HIGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...A SURFACE TROF WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL AGAIN INCREASE
THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO MAX SMALL CRAFT/MIN GALES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A WARM ONE SO FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...
MARINE...SMCR...PKZ011>013-021-022-041>043-051-052