Storm Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 170545 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
830 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171815-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 960MB STORM FORCE LOW 300 NM SW OF CROSS SOUND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-171815-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
309 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 30 FT
SUBSIDING TO 23 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING
TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.  
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-171815-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
830 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

UPDATED WINDS

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 25 FT
SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-171815-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
830 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

UPDATED WINDS 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-171815-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
810 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007


...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-171815-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
810 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 171217
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 971MB LOW 100 NM S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE NW BUT REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL BECOMING W IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 12 FT LATE. W SWELL.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL BECOMING
W IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING
TO 12 FT LATE.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...STORM FORCE LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF HAS BEGUN
TO WILL WHILE TRACKING NORTHWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUCH THAT
EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF CROSS
SOUND...WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM A
PAGS-PAJN LINE SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. SOUTHEASTERLY STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS CLARENCE
STRAIT WITH GALES EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT LYNN CANAL WHICH HAS
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

FIRST OF TWO FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS THE TIMING OF THE
DECREASE IN WINDS. SYSTEM IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IF ANY LOCATION HAS NOT SEEN PEAK CONDITIONS
YET IT WOULD BE YAKUTAT AND THEY SHOULD SEE MAX WINDS BETWEEN NOW
AND MIDNIGHT. MOST RECENT MODEL RUN NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE LESS
INTENSE AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...WILL BE ADJUSTING THE ENDING TIME
TO THE WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WITH MOST PLACES ENDING
EARLIER.

THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
ALREADY HAD NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES AND THUNDER WAS REPORTED AT THE SITKA AIRPORT.
CURRENTLY HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES WITH
ISOLATED OVER THE OUTER COAST. AM EXPECTING TO SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PICK UP OVER THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS WELL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING AT 30 TO
50 KTS OVER THE GROUND COULD BE VERY STRONG. APART FROM NORMAL
THUNDERSTORM SAFETY...MOTORIST AND MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR SIGNS OF VERY STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THEY MAY ENCOUNTER. FCF

.LONG RANGE...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND INITIALIZATION THROUGH THE
TIME FRAME IS ALSO ACCEPTABLE.  WHILE THESE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AND THE 12Z GFS...WILL NUDGE TO THIS
MODEL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FOR THESE REASONS.

THE REMNANTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PREVIOUSLY IN THE EASTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY FILL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.  THE
BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW OVER MARINE ZONES 51 AND 52 TO END OVERNIGHT.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT
OVER THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.  THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF DISSIPATES.
BEHIND THIS...A FLATTENED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  WILL NUDGE TOWARDS CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ZONES.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY
AS IT SLIDES NORTHWARD.  MODELS HINT AT THE LOWS STRENGTH AROUND
THE UPPER 960S WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE STRENGTH SEEN AMONGST
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  THE ECMWF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
STRENGTH-WISE...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO LAG BEHIND THE GFS BY ABOUT 6
TO 12 HOURS.

TIMING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THE OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE INTO THE
EASTERN BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE WELL INTO THE HIGH
GALE RANGE OVER THE GULF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE.  FOR
NOW WILL LIMIT WINDS TO 45 KT.  ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALSO SEEM
LIKELY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE PANHANDLE.

BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREEMENT IS QUITE LOW. THERE IS A
HINT OF A LOW STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW NO CONSISTENCY.
WILL NOT JUMP ON ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR NOW. HANKO

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING AKZ022-023-027
         WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AKZ018-019

MARINE...STORM FORCE PKZ041>043-051-036
         GALES PKZ011-013-021-022031>035-052
         SMALL CRAFT PKZ012

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PORT ALEXANDER          56.26N 134.63W
11/16/2007  M0 MPH                              AK   AWOS

            58 MPH GUSTS AT 753 AM AND 858 AM.

&&

JBT