Storm Warning 4, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 070010
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A STORM FORCE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 980 MB NEAR CAPE
DECISION TONIGHT THEN MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUN. A
1007 MB LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING ON MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ALCAN ON TUE AND WED. 

$$

PKZ041-071400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING 50 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 24 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-071400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 45 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
BUILDING TO 28 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 24 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-071400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 45 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.  
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-071400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING. SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-071400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 071224
CWFAEG
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-080100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A 980 MB STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND TODAY. A 1001 MB LOW JUST OFF CAPE SUCKLING THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON. OUTLOOK. 
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON ON TUE
BECOMING 1051 MB OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WED. 
$$

PKZ041-080100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ042-080100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ043-080100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ051-080100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ052-080100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING. 
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...GOES IR SHOWS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
OVER ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN...EXCEPT NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER
WHERE FILLING REMAINS OF 980 MB LOW INCLUDES CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD HAVE LAST OF WARM LAYER ALOFT AND ANY FRONTAL
INVERSIONS.  SHOWERS MAY BE GLIDING UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER HAINES VICINITY...AND IS LIKELY A REASON FOR THE
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THAT IS SHOWNING UP AT HAINES AS
HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMAINS OF THE LOW MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER WILL MOVE EAST BEYOND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ABOUT 03Z.  SNOW ADVISORY IS BEING PREPARED FOR
HAINES BUT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHUTOFF ABOUT 03Z-06Z
THIS EVENING.

LIFTING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER ALL PNHDL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST BY 06Z AS LAST OF BROAD TROUGHS
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING EAST PAST THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

AFTER THE WEAKENING OF CONVECTION...THE NEXT IMPORTANT
CHANGES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT IS CURRENLY DEVELOPING
ABOUT 600 NM S OF ADAK.  GFS190 12Z RUN USED FOR THE LOW
TRACK ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT.  THIS GFS190
RUN WILL ALSO BE EMPHASISED FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FIELDS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS ONLY FAIR AS A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE.  SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
DEPICTS AN UNUSUALLY WIDE SPREAD OF SURFACE PRESSURE OVER
MOST OF PANHANDLE FOR 12Z SUN.  THE TWO MAIN REASONS FOR
USING THE 12Z GFS190 ARE...FIRST...SIMILARITY TO SREF MEAN.
SECOND IS THAT THE POLAR FRONT ZONE CONFIGURATION IS
RELATIVELY SIMPLE AND THE GFS TENDS TO VERIF WELL IN
SUCH CASES.

.LONG RANGE...
AFTER LANDFALL OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SE AK SAT NIGHT A
COLD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SETTLES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF AK BY EARLY MON. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND INTERIOR AK BEHIND IT. ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS IN THE DEPTH AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW BUT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF 50N IN THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
REGION.  THIS LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE NATURE OF A
SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION. BEST SOLUTION IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT MOVES A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER DIXON
ENTRANCE BY EARLY TUE WHILE THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF SLOWLY
WEAKENS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK BUT SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY
RECEIVE SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL ON TUE.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF
AND YUKON TERRITORY BY EARLY THU. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
INTENSIFY IN THE YUKON BY MID WEEK WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING WED THROUGH EARLY THU.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NOTE AMD BEING PREPARED THAT WILL GIVE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 19 INCLUDING HAINES.
MARINE...GALE 22 41-51
         SMCR ELSEWHERE XCP 11 AND 12

JT/CFD