Storm Warning 32, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 201734 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
930 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
SAT...THEN DISSIPATE ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE ALASKA SAT
NIGHT. A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF OF
ALASKA LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN REACH THE FAR NE GULF AND WEAKEN BY
SUN EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 32 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SHOWERS LATE.  
.SUN...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 202126 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
128 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
SAT...THEN DISSIPATE ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE ALASKA SAT
NIGHT. A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF OF
ALASKA LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN REACH THE FAR NE GULF AND WEAKEN BY
SUN EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
128 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

UPDATED TODAY

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 32 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
128 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

UPDATED TODAY

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SHOWERS LATE.  
.SUN...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 202331
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH EASTERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
 A STRONG 972 MB STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTH EASTERN GULF EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH EASTERN GULF AND WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 30 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND TO 55 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. SHOWERS LATE.
.SUN...NE WIND TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 210220 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
620 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH EASTERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
 A STRONG 972 MB STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTH EASTERN GULF EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH EASTERN GULF AND WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
620 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

UPDATED TONIGHT

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
620 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

UPDATED TONIGHT

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
620 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

UPDATED TONIGHT

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
LATE.
SEAS 30 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND TO 55 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007 

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. SHOWERS LATE.
.SUN...NE WIND TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 211148
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INLAND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 25 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE.  
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 65 KT AROUND NOON. SEAS 24 FT
BUILDING TO 33 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 30 KT LATE. SEAS 28 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.  
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
22 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 
14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS LATE.  
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1200 PM ADT FRI OCT 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TWO WEAK LOW CIRCULATIONS
SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A WEAK HIGH TO THE EAST AND A
LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES HAS ALLOWED ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE PANHANDLE.
AREAS OF FOG OVER THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND VIA OBS BUT WILL BURN OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEAK FLOW OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS.

TONIGHT...THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES MAY
BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD BUT WILL
MOVE OUT OF ZONE 27 AND 28 BY MORNING. THE LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS DIMINISHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG. ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS TOWARD MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM SITKA NORTHWARD.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES
AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WHERE A HARD FREEZE HAS NOT OCCURRED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WILL MAKE
THINGS TRICKY. LOOKS LIKE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN ZONES 27 AND
28 LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST AND MAY ALLOW A FEW
HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PRODUCE SOME FROST. ZONE 26 WILL
HAVE MORE TIME TO RADIATE TONIGHT WHERE PETERSBURG MAY REACH
FREEZE CRITERIA WITH WRANGELL AND KAKE COMING CLOSE AS WELL.
FROST ADV POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR IN ZONES 18 19 23 AND 24. FINAL
DECISION WILL BE MADE AFTER EVALUATING 18Z MODEL RUNS.

TOMORROW...A SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF TOMORROW BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND CENTRAL COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS PORT
ALEXANDER. ELSEWHERE...A SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY
IN THE MORNING TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE BRINGING THE
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL WEAKEN AWAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
THE CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD IN THE AFTERNOON. FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED. TAR

.LONG RANGE...THIS MORNING SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLIER PART OF LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS STORM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL MODEL RUN SHOWS A BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY THAN YESTERDAY.
MAJOR DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN PRIMARILY AT THE LOWER LEVELS BETWEEN
THE GFS/UKMET AND NAM.  BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS AGREE ON
BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PASSAGE OF
TROUGH LEADING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

MODEL INITIALIZATION IS GOOD SINCE 06Z LAST NIGHT.  YET FOR THE
STORM ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF...STILL HAVE NO PARTICULAR ONE
MODEL IN PREFERENCE.  BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ONE SHIP OBSERVATION
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SHOWED A HINT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WEST OF
160W.  THE GFS PICKS THE LOW AS 993 MB WEST OF 160W NEAR 40N
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT DEEPENS TO 988 MB BY 06Z TONIGHT.
IT HAS A FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY IN INTENSIFYING THE STORM UP TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BECOMES 973 MB AND APPROACHES TO NEAR
50N IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY 00Z.  THEN THE NAM JOINS SOUTH OF THE
GFS POSITION BUT WITH A WEAKER IN STRENGTH...ABOUT 983 MB.
ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND UKMET STILL KEEPS
THE STORM WEST OF 140W BY 06Z SUNDAY...IT SEEMS TO MAKE A MORE
FAVORABLE SOLUTION FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FORECAST.  THE NAM LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER AFTER THIS TIME FRAME.

PREFER TO USE THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCES TO EDIT THE INHERITED
GRIDS.  THIS MAY BRING THE LOW CENTER A BIT MORE WEST CLOSER TO
140W WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STRONGER.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BOTH THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE 967 MB LOW IN
THE CENTRAL GULF JUST WEST OF 140W.  THE GFS GOES TO EVEN
STRONGER AS LOW AS 963 MB BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.  AS FAR AS THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS CONCERNED...THE STRENGTH OF THIS STORM COULD BE EVEN
DEEPER THAN WHAT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.  IN THIS WORST SCENARIO
...SOUTHERLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 64 KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION
SUNDAY MORNING AND STORM FORCE WINDS UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE OVER
MOST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL BUILD HIGHER SEAS...GREATER THAN 30 FEET...
OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS.  MAY NEED TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES FOR SUNDAY AS WELL AS WIND ADVISORY FOR INNER
PASSAGES.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY VERY
MUCH THE SAME THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT...BUT UKMET JUMPS UP TO 973 MB WHILE KEEPING
THE TRACK WEST OF 140W.  THE GFS GUIDANCE MAY MAKE A BETTER STORY
AT THIS POINT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FROM THE SOUTH OVER
THE SOUTH EASTERN GULF AND BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...A RESIDUAL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WILL GENERATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE FOR PERSISTING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST QUICKLY AS THE NEXT LOW ENTERING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS LOW SEEMS LIKE
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  MODEL OUTPUTS LEAD TO A GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL LEAN OVER THE GFS GUIDANCE IN
GENERAL THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SCA DUE TO SEAS PKZ041 PKZ043.