Storm Warning 26, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 211136 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG 980 MB LOW CENTERED OVER FREDERICK SOUND WILL MOVE EAST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
WILL EASE THROUGH THE MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY AND SLOWLY
DROP SOUTH TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007 

UPDATED WINDS EARLY TODAY

...STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
15 FT LATE.  
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 14 FT LATE.  
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SW
SWELL.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 211657
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
851 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG 980 MB LOW CENTERED OVER FREDERICK SOUND WILL MOVE EAST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
WILL EASE THROUGH THE MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY AND SLOWLY
DROP SOUTH TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-220200-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
851 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
15 FT LATE.  
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220200-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
851 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 14 FT LATE.  
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220200-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
851 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220200-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
851 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220200-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
851 AM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SW
SWELL.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1145 AM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WEAK RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF TODAY IS MAKING
FOR ONSHORE FLOW. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITITES STAYING MOSTLY IN
MVFR RANGE IN MOIST AIR MASS. HIGH BUILDS INLAND THUR AFTN MORE
STABILIZING TREND. SCA WINDS LYNN CANAL THU MORNING WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 20KTS THIS AFTN AND BE LIGHT THIS EVE. MAIN FCST ISSUE IN
SHORT RANGE IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW FORECAST TO CRANK UP WHILE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE TONIGHT.
FORECASTS ARE WELL COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORS IN ANCHORAGE AND
VANCOUVER.

STILL SEEN AS BAROCLINIC LEAF IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR THE DEVELOPING WAVE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND IS
AROUND 1012 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CHARACTERISTICS OF
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING AND A NARROW TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG DATELINE. UNFORTUNATE GAP THIS MORNING IN COVERAGE OF
SSMI WINDS OVER AREA OF INTEREST. MODEL FORECASTS DEEPEN THIS LOW
QUICKLY TO BETWEEN 985MB /CANADIAN/ TO 995MB /NAM/ TONIGHT IN THE
SE OFF WATERS ZONE. WILL FOLLOW CURRENT GRIDS AND CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT CANADA THINKING OF TAKING LOW TO CRAIG THEN WRANGELL
LATE THUR NIGHT AND LEANING TOWARD DEEPER SOLUTIONS. DEEPENED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPRCHG LOW A BIT TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS AND IT
GENERATED WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT IS ALREADY FCST. RESULT IS SOLID
GALES OVER SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES INCLUDING CLARENCE STRAIT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR LAND ZONES
SOUTH OF A PORT ALEXANDER TO HYDER LINE. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT BUT END FROM NORTH LATE TONIGHT ANY BY MID DAY CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL PERSIST INTO FRI AFTERNOON
OVER SRN SE AK MTNS...ESPECIALLY ZONE 29. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER ERN GULF/SE AK LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT KEEPS A MOIST AIR
FLOW INTO PANHANDLE. COOLING ALOFT POST FRONTAL ALSO ADDS TO
INSTABILITY STARTING FRI AFTERNOON AND LOWERS FREEZING LEVELS TO
4000-4500 FT BY LATE FRI.

.LONG RANGE...WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OFF SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS
SUBSIDING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO WESTERN
CANADA.

MID RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE FAIR CONCENSUS ON NEXT INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. FORECAST MODELS SWEEP THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ONSHORE JUST SOUTH OF THE
SITKA AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND WIND
SUNDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AREA. HAVE NUDGED THE CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS40. LOOKS AS IF GALE
FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE OFF SHORE AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE WILL NOT BE MAKING MUCH IF ANY CHANGES AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING.  AS A RESULT WILL NOT TRY AND NIT-PICK ANY MINOR
DETAILS AT THAT RANGE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT SOUTHERN ZONE 23 AND ZONES
            27-28-29
MARINE...SCA ENDING THIS AFTN LYNN CANAL.
         GALES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI SOUTHERN OFFSHORE...
            PKZ041-42 AND CLARENCE STR.
         SCA TONIGHT FREDERICK.. SUMNER.. SO CHATHAM.. AND OUTER
            COAST N OF CAPE EDGECUMBE

TA - BMB