Storm Warning 25, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 151140
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 984 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR CAPE
SPENCER BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE
BY LATE SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.  
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1200 PM ADT FRI SEP 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...992 MB GALE WAS NEAR 53N 148W BASED ON 18Z
SATELLITE DATA. IT IS MOVING NE AT 37 KNOTS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
NAM AND EURO MODEL FCST TRACK ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE JUST A BIT
DEEPER AND FASTER THAN GFS. LOW CENTER FCST TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT
986 MB AND BE BETWEEN YAKUTAT BAY AND CAPE SUCKLING BY LATE SAT
MORNING. BUOY 46085 NE OF THE LOW CENTER DROPPED 6.4 MB BETWEEN
15Z-18Z AND PEAK WINDS JUST OVER 30 KTS. FORECASTS WITH
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND PRECIP STARTING TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WAS EXPIRED AT 19Z.
SPOTTER FROM N KETCHIKAN REPORTED FOG OVER WATER LIFTING INTO
DENSE CLOUD DECK. MAY TAKE A WHILE BUT BELIEVE THIS SFC BASED
CLOUD DECK WILL EVAPORATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN TOP WEB
CAMS ABOVE THE FOG SHOW HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THERE NOW AND AN OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. FARTHER
NORTH...LOW MARINE STRATUS WAS WIDESPREAD FRI MORNING AND BEING
OVER RUN BY FRONTAL CLOUDS. BIORKA RADAR HAD RAIN SHIELD INTO
MOST COASTAL MARINE ZONES ALREADY. ONLY GROUND TRUTH OF PCPN WAS
FROM A SHIP AT 18Z IN THE EASTERN OFFSHORE ZONE NEAR 56N 140W.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RAPID SATURATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELY ONSET OF SOAKING RAINS... ALONG THE
NRN AND CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 21Z-00Z... NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
BETWEEN 03Z-06Z... AND SOUTHERN ZONES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

STRONG GEOSTROPHIC WIND ALL LEVELS SUPPORT WIND ADVISORIES AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TONIGHT FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTH. WIND
ADVISORIES NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS...ESPECIALLY LYNN CANAL...ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING LATER SAT. RAINFALL TOTALS BY LATE SAT
AFTRERNOON RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AND HIGHEST TOTALS BETWEEN
SITKA AND YAKUTAT.

.LONG RANGE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SAT EVENING WITH TWO UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
FEATURES PRESENT...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND THE OTHER OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN
FROM AROUND 990 MB TO AROUND 1004 MB AS DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. NAM/ECMWF
STILL THE PREFERED SOLUTION.

CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIP TO SHOWERS OVER
THE PANHANDLE BY SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NAM LI SHOWING AN AREA OF 0 TO
-1 OVER THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT THE QUESTION. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE COULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISH SOME SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH. WINDY CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REGION INTO SAT
EVENING WITH THE LOW OVER THE YUKON...BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THAT FEATURE WEAKENS AND THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND CHANGES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
NORTHERLY. GALE/SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WEAKENING LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON SUN THROUGH EARLY SUN
EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
NORTHERN HALF.

A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH MON...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH MON THROUGH TUE AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...HOWEVER THE RIDGE MAY NOT BE THAT SHARP AND ALLOW FOR
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A LOW POP INTO TUE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN INTO WED
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE BRINGING A SERIES OF FRONTS AND WEAK LOWS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AS CHC TO LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THIS FLOW REGIME.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY TNGT S COAST ZONES 23 AND 27.
MARINE...GALE WARNING TNGT OUTER COAST ZONES 42>52... GALE
WARNING TODAY AND TNGT OFFSHORE ZONE... SCA TNGT ALL INNER
CHANNEL ZONES EXCEPT LYNN CANAL

TA/TAR