Storm Warning 17, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 211132
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 965 MB LOW EAST OF KODIAK WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND MOVE ONSHORE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO CANADA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST GALE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF TODAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO OVER 25 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANOTHER 965 GALE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT TUE MAR 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A MESSY WEATHER SITUATION IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LARGE SCALE LOW NOW
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST.

THE FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND QUICKLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERE IS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE
EARLY CHANGEOVER WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS THEY WILL BE
THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WONT MEET ADVISORY OR WARNING
CRITERIA. THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
SEE SUFFICIENT SNOW FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY WHILE THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE WARNING AMOUNTS.

THE CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND MAY CAUSE SOME URBAN FLOODING AS DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
BLOCKED DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL
LIKELY BE SENDING OUT AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THOSE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THAT HAVE AT LEAST A FOOT OF
SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THERE WILL BE MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT THIS
MATTER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THE FINAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE GULF. EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS
TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND AND WILL AFFECT
THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND.

.LONG RANGE...
LONG RANGE MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
THU NIGHT BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND TRAGECTORY. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
KEEPING A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS
MOVES THE LOW QUICKLY INTO NORTHWEST CANADA BY FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A LEADING LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI BUT LEAVE A RESIDUAL
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA UNTIL A NEW LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF TO
REPLACE IT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ENSEMBLE
DIVERGENCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO
THE GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
HOWEVER AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF INCREASING OUTFLOW
FROM INTERIOR PASSES WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THU NIGHT.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH AKZ017>022-024>026 SNOW ADVISORY
AKZ029 WIND ADVISORY AKZ017>029
MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ021>022-033-036-041>043-051>053 SCA
PKZ011>012-031>032-034>035