Storm Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 070005
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 967 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD GALE TO
STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-071400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 27 FT
SUBSIDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS...THEN SNOW. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-071400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 29 FT
SUBSIDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS...THEN SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-071400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-071400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING.   
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS...THEN SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-071400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
ICY BAY. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
ICY BAY...GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO
15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF ICY BAY. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF ICY BAY. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF ICY BAY. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS...THEN SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 071227
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST WED MAR 7 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-080100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. A 985 MB LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-080100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST WED MAR 7 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.  

.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-080100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST WED MAR 7 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-080100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST WED MAR 7 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-080100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST WED MAR 7 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-080100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST WED MAR 7 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. S
SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF ICY BAY. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF ICY BAY. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON MAR 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...FIRST LOW MOVING NORTH JUST WEST OF CHICHAGOF
ISLAND MONDAY MORNING PASSING OVER THE CROSS SOUND REGION AROUND
10 AM.  WRAP AROUND BAND FINALLY PUSHED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING
A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FALL INTO YAKUTAT. PICKED UP A QUICK 2
INCHES THIS MORNING AND ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL BE ENDING. EXPECT THE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THE INTERIOR PASSES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL BE
EXTENDING THAT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOOKED AS IF THE NAM INITIALIZED BEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
OUR CONTINUED TRAIN OF LOWS MOVING NORTHWARD.  NAM SEEMED TO HAVE
BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW JUST PASSING BUOY 46184 THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THAT THIS LOW WILL STAY ALONG 140W AS IT MOVES
NORTH...THEN CURVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDDLETON ISLAND TUESDAY.
THEREFORE MAY KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT GENERALLY
OFF SHORE THE PANHANDLE.

RAIN SNOW LINE THIS MORNING GOES FROM NORTH OF SITKA TO FREDERICK
SOUND NORTH OF KAKE AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE...BUT
A POCKET OF COLD AIR SEEMS TO BE LINGERING AROUND WRANGELL
AIRPORT THIS MORNING. WILL BE LETTING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
EXPIRE FOR ZONE 26.

FOR THE ANGOON AREA TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND NOW INTO THE
UPPER 20S... WILL NOT BE ADJUSTING THE SNOW WARNING FOR THERE DUE
TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AS THE REMAINS OF THE LOW MOVES NORTH TO CANADA...EXPECT TO SEE
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED SO FAR.

WITH THE WARMING HEADED NORTH AS WELL... TONIGHT FORECAST TRICKY
AS TO THE TYPE.  STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION I THINK IN THE GUSTAVUS AREA BUT WILL BE CHECKING
ON THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER ALL THE IDEA OF ANOTHER 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE.

THE FRONTAL BAND FROM THE FURTHER SOUTH AND MUCH STRONGER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING WITH IT MORE RAIN...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING UP
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON SO RAIN AND OR SNOW
AT LEAST OVER THE NORTH TIER.

.LONG RANGE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MID WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH WILL
DOMINATE FROM THE ALEUTIANS NORTHWARD...WHILE A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MID WEEK ONLY
TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE GULF LATE WEEK AND LINGER THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...A DEEP LOW IN THE 960S OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED...THEN
DISSIPATE THERE WED NIGHT INTO THU. IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A
STRONG BAND OF HIGH GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH 25 TO 35 FOOT
SEAS SPREADING NORTH. WIND ADV GUSTS LOOK HIGHLY LIKELY ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST THROUGH WED EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT AND PUT AND END TO THE
STRONG NORTHERLIES THAT HAVE PERSISTED FOR SO LONG.

THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A BAND OF
PRECIP MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. TRICKIEST AREA WITH BE THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES
AREAS FOR PRECIP TYPE. A WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING MAY MAKE IT UP
THERE AND CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO
GO ABOVE FREEZING TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. WILL MENTION SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR WRAPS BACK IN OVER THE PANHANDLE WED
NIGHT AND TRANSITIONS TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE SECOND LOW...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH A LOW IN
THE 970S WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THU AND THU
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRI.
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO ALL AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A GOOD SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE THU THROUGH FRI.
SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF LOW THU NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE INNER CHANNELS.

A THIRD LOW WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF FOR
THE WEEKEND WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD FOR SNOW IN MOST
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY START BUILDING BACK IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
BRING SOME ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AKZ024
         WINTER STORM WARNING ENDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
               AKZ018>022-025
         WIND ADVISORY EXNTEND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AKZ017
         SNOW ADVISORY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AKZ017
         FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026

MARINE...CURRENT GALES PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-036-041-051
      ...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT PKZ033>035-042-043-053
      ...CURRENT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING PKZ011>013

BMB/TAR