Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL POSITION
OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS
NOT QUITE AS GOOD.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THE MODELS ARENT TOO BAD
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE
INITIAL FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA. POPS WILL LOWER IN THIS AREA TO CHANCE BY LATE
TONIGHT. OVER THE SOUTH...THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT LOW SHOULD
BEGIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...
LIKELY BY 12Z.

WE MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE REACHING THE SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE. AM RELUCTANT TO
CANCEL THE ADVISORY HOWEVER BECAUSE THE PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH
OR TWO IN BRIEF DOWNBURSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION BUT WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG RANGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND. THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GOING WITH GFS/UKMET SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WITH IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE WRF.

WILL BE HARD TO GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS
LOW...AS AN OPEN TROUGH MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
WENT MOSTLY WITH CURRENT GFS SOLUTION THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY...THEN WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST AND
CURRENT GFS MODEL TO GET A BETTER CONSENSUS SOLUTION ON THE NEXT
STRONG LOW TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT OR SO.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN THIS
PATTERN...WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE AT SEA LEVEL HOVERING SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A
COOLER BUT STILL MOIST WESTERLY FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THAT IS GETTING WAY OUT THERE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKZ018>020-025
MARINE...SCA PKZ033>036-041>043-051-052

MLR/TF