Small Craft Advisory 538, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A WEAKENING LOW OVER CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOVES NORTH
THIS MORNING WITH RISING PRESSURE FIELD AND DECREASING WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  HOWEVER...CAPE DECISION STILL REPORTS
STRONG WIND OF 44 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 72 KNOTS.  THUS WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN THREE ZONES THROUGH 12 NOON.
SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AND INNER CHANNELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WINDS MUCH OF TODAY.  AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES AROUND JUNEAU AIRPORT.  SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
RECEIVES LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST
CONSISTENCY.  WILL BLEND GRIDS A LITTLE WITH THE GFS 190 AND 40
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.  LOOK A BIT COMPLICATED SITUATION
WITH WIND.  EXPECT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST.  AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...COLD AIR ALOFT MAY
GENERATE ISOLATED LIFTED CONVECTIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AND BECOME A SURFACE TROUGH
AND BE ABSORBED BY A LOW NEAR KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
REGENERATE A POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER FAR NORTH OFFSHORE WATERS
AND NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE NEXT LOW ENTERING THE SOUTH EASTERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN TO ABOUT 975 MB JUST WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW WILL PLAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG RANGE...THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED TRACK OF SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC CURVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.
THERE IS ONE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LIFT OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM SNOW IN THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN.  ANOTHER LOW IN THE TRACK DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW
SHOWING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.  CURRENT LINE OF
MOVEMENT ON THIS ONE TO THE SOUTHERN HECATE STRAIT REGION BUT
THESE HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE WEST SO HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT
IT AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN CASE IT DOES TAKE A MORE
NORTH/WEST.

FOR THE FORECAST NUDGE USED THE GFS40 AS THE BASIS AND GOOD
COORDINATION WITH WFO ANCHORAGE.  LATER TIME FRAMES STILL ALL
OVER THE GULF WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR
THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. RATHER THAN TRY AND FOLLOW AN
PARTICULAR MODEL IN IT WAFFLING... WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
CHANGES TO TO THE LATER PERIODS. SO NO CHANGES TO THAT TIME.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WND ADV FOR AKZ023-026>029 SUNDAY.
MARINE...SCA FOR ALL OUTSIDE WATERS THRU TONITE.

AHN / BEZENEK