Small Craft Advisory 508, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...NC TO SHORT RANGE FCST PKG.

964 MB LOW 60 NM SW OF HOMER HAS AN OCCLUSION WRAPPED AROUND
IT WITH THE OUTER BAND IN AN ARC FM GLENALLEN TO YAKUTAT TO
200 NM W OF KETCHIKAN. THE OCCLUSION IS MOVING EAST...SHOULD
BE OVER A JUNEUA TO SITKA LINE ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOVG E BYND THE ENTIRE PNHDL 12Z TONIGHT.

NAM TO GFS MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE GOOD IN THE SHORT RANGE
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE GRIDS.  THE ENDING
OF WIND ADVISORIES IN A NW TO SE SEQUENCE IS BEING KEPT
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO ADJUSTMENT.

.LONG RANGE...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE.  GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF LASTS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  THEREFORE WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES IN THE MIDDLE RANGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE THE NEXT STRONG 975 MB LOW WILL
TRACK ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THEN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GULF
FRIDAY THEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT STORM...DO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK
UP TO GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
BERING...ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF.  THE RESULT
WILL BE A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES START TO APPEAR ON SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP LOWS
OF DIFFERING STRENGTH AND POSITIONS AND MOVE THEM INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER LOW WITH
A TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF.  THE GFS MEANWHILE
MOVES THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THEN INLAND ACROSS CAPE
DECISION ON MONDAY.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT GFS BUT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES.  WITH THIS FORECAST VOLATILITY...WILL LEAVE SOLUTION
AS IS.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ017>028   NOTE THESE ADVISORIES
WILL END IN A NW TOWARD SE SEQUENCE WITH ZONE 17 ENDING
AT NOON.

MARINE...GALE PKZ022-036-041>043-051>052 SMALL CRAFT
PKZ011>013-031>035