Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1145 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...NO PUBLIC
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
FINALLY A BRIEF QUIET WEATHER PERIOD OVER THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND RAIN HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...BUT WHILE ALL OF THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THEY ALL AGREE IT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SO WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE REGION STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.

WHILE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST WEEK
OR SO. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO
BOTH WIND AND SEAS.

.LONG RANGE...SEVERAL MORE STORMS RIDING STG WLY PACIFIC
JETSTREAM TOWARD SE AK INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN JET BUCKLES AS
RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND VERY COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
CANADA. LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW COLDER NW FLOW
AFFECTING FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.

A HINT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS OVER PANHANDLE THUR. AIR
STABILITY DECREASES PER MODEL INDICIES SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS THUR...MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTHERN ZONES. FAST MOVING SYSTEM
CURRENTLY AT 40N 165W SCREAMS ALONG 160 KT JET AND... ACCORDING
TO THE NEW HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS MODEL... MAKES LANDFALL FRI NEAR
CAPE FAIRWEATHER. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE STORM FORCE SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF IT FRI OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND POSSIBLE
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS. THE LONG FETCH OF WEST WIND BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRDUCE SWELLS OVER 30 FT AIMED AT THE FAR SOUTH COAST
AND DIXON ENTRANCE EARLY SAT. AT THE OTHER END OF THE PANHANDLE
FRI... PRESSURE GRADIENT FCSTS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST GALE
FORCE WINDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SNOW POTENTIAL NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAINES TO YAKUTAT WHERE COOL
AIR LEFT BEHIND THUR MAY OR MAY NOT SCOUR OUT FRI. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW SAT AND SUN WILL KEEP POPS HIGH... PARTICULARLY
SOUTH PANHANDLE.

BY MON THE LONG WLY JET FINALLY BUCKLES AROUND ANCHORING LONG
WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE N PAC AND CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS VERIFIES
NW FLOW ALF DEVELOPS OVER MOST OF AK NEXT WEEK. CURRENT SFC TEMPS
AROUND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE IN AK AND SIBERIA HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN
THE -30F TO -50F RANGE FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THOSE EXTREME TEMPS
WONT BE FELT IN SE AK... BLO AVE TEMPS (TEENS AND 20S) MAY BE
HEADED OUR WAY AGAIN. TA

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA PKZ022-041>043-051>052