Small Craft Advisory 498, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT FRI OCT 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK YET THROUGH THE
SHORT RANGE.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF IT.  THERE IS A SMALL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON IT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAPE SPENCER REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN INLAND TO CANADA.  FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

WIND ADVISORIES DUE THE GUSTY WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... GENERALLY IN THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION.

MODELS HINTING AT A LARGE PORTION OF THE PARENT LOW FROM THE
BERING BEING KICK EAST TO SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SATURDAY SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER THE LAND ZONES.

.LONG RANGE...THE MODELS THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT THEN THERE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG
LOW MOVING MOVING INTO THE GULF THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SO WITH THAT
SAID WILL REFRESH THE GRIDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH THE 12Z GFS40
BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

SE AK WILL REMAIN WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN TO BE OUT OF THE SW WITH VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE AK
PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS A
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SAT
NIGHT. THIS WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
INCREASE THE PRCIP RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SE AK. WINDS
WILL WITH THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT AREAS MAY
SEE 25 MPH OF WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

A STRONG AND DEEP 970MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA BY MON.
AFTER MON MORNING THERE IS LARGE SPREADS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AS THERE IS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM. ATTM THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE
UKMET...ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THEY ALL TAKE THE LOW INTO
THE NW GULF WHILE THE GFS PULLS THE LOW FURTHER INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF BY TUE NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT A BAD
COMPROMISE SO WILL SEE NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST AND JUST KEEP AN
CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE DIFFERENCES
GET SMALLER.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ018-021>029
MARINE...GALE PKZ036-041>043-051-052 ...SMALL CRAFT
PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053