Small Craft Advisory 488, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT TUE OCT 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
CENTER AROUND A LOW MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE AREA.  MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND ARE NOT COMING INTO GOOD
CONSENSUS AS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ALL MODELS ARE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST BY
VARYING DEGREES. RIGHT NOW THE CLOSEST MODELS APPEAR TO BE THE
UKMET AND THE GFS...WITH THE UKMET SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND
THEREFORE PREFERRED.  THE CLOSEST OBSERVATION LOCATION...BOUY
46208...IS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE SCA RANGE.  MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS FALLING IN THE PANT/PAKT AREA.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THEN JUST NORTH OF
KETCHIKAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT PACKAGE BRINGS ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 29 - MISTY
FJORDS AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERN LOW TRACK...WILL LIKELY ADD WIND ADVISORY TO ZONE 28
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 3 PM TO 9 PM TIME FRAME.

ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN GULF IS STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE
17.  EARLIER...A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES FIRED ALONG THE
COAST NEAR ICY BAY.  WILL KEEP ISOLATED TSTORMS FOR WESTERN 17
AND MARINE 52 THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWER CLUSTER EXITING THE
AREA TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AREA NEAR THE TROUGH TONIGHT.  RAINFALL WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOW MOVING INLAND...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.

.LONG RANGE...MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE MID RANGE LOOK TO BE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. WILL BE USING THE GFS40 AS BASIS FOR ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE WEEKEND. SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY.
FRONT FROM STRONG 980-ISH PARENT LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND IN
THE BERING SEA SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY EVENING
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS...LOOKING AT PROBABLY 40 TO 45 KT FOR THE
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS MARINE FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA
FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COASTAL ZONES HAD ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FROM THE FROM MOVING IN.

ALSO EXPECTING SOME SOLID RAIN FALL AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT COMES
IN...HEAVIER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ... DONT ANTICIPATE ANY HYDRO PROBLEM BUT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEHIND THE FRONT A SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY. LOCATION OF THIS STARTS TO FALTER
A BIT IN THE MODEL CONSESUS...EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE ON THE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LOOK TO BE
RATHER ZONAL. WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT INTO EARLY NEXT WILL
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEAS UP AS THE SWELL WILL BUILD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY...SOUTHERN ZONE 29 6PM-MIDNIGHT
MARINE...SCA...PKZ012-22-31-33-35-36-42-43-51-52
         GALE..PKZO41

KJH / BMB