Small Craft Advisory 331, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 210544 AAA
CWFAJK
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-211400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 995 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN YUKON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH SAT AS A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO S OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES BY SUN.

$$

PKZ011-211400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON THROUGH WED...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ012-211400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1000 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

UPDATED TONIGHT

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.  
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-211400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1000 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

UPDATED TONIGHT

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.  
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-211400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-211400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.  
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ031-211400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING.  
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH WED...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.

$$

PKZ032-211400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING.  
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH WED...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.

$$

PKZ033-211400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-211400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ035-211400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ036-211400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SAT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...WIND BECOMING SE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT FRI JUL 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE BETWEEN PAJN AND PAGY...WITH LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. RAINFALL IN THE BAND OF
HEAVIER RAIN WILL TOTAL BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ONE
INCH. THESE TOTALS WERE MAINLY A SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM...ALTHOUGH THE NAM DID DO A BETTER JOB IN LOCATING THE
LOCATING THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 988 MB LOW OVER WESTERN
NWT WHICH WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER SOUTHWEST NWT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
ALASKA-YUKON BORDER. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK FLOW FROM THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PRESS NORTH INTO THE PAGY-PAHN
AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING FOR
MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG LYNN CANAL AND TAIYA INLET. FOG WILL LIKELY BE FORMING IN
AREAS WITH LIGHTER WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
AROUND PAWG AND PAPG. AS THE 50H LOW OVER NWT PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST A 70KT JET STREAK WILL FORM JUST OFF THE COAST BRINGING
WITH IT MORE RAIN AND ONSHORE-TYPE FLOW TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAINFALL FROM THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS
WHAT WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
UP TO HALF AN INCH...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN PAGY AND PAYA. CENTRAL
AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRYING THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SAME WEAK
FLOW FROM FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

HYDRO WISE...SMALL RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE IN AREAS WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY AROUND SKAGWAY AND THE TAKU RIVER. SMALL
STREAM ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ZONE 18 IN PARTICULAR
THE TAIYA RIVER. AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING THAT RIVER GAUGE WAS
READING 16 FT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO BE NEAR 17 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE CHILKOOT TRAIL AND IF THE RIVER
GOES ABOVE 17 FT THEN A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS THE PARK
SERVICE WILL CLOSE THE TRAIL. THERE MAY BE OTHER STREAMS THAT
WILL IMPACT THE PUBLIC SO PEOPLE NEAR SMALL STREAMS SHOULD KEEP
AN WATCHFUL EYE ON THE SITUATION. ANOTHER RIVER OF CONCERN IS THE
TAKU RIVER AS OVERNIGHT THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE TAKU IN B.C. THERE WAS ALSO AN
OBSERVATION THAT THE GLACIER DAMMED LAKE NAMED LAKE NO LAKE HAD
RELEASED. THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION AS OF 11 AM THAT THIS HAS
HAPPENED BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE WATER TEMP BEGINS TO DROP
WHEN THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION COMES IN. REGARDLESS THE
RIVER IS BEGINNING TO RISE AND COULD BECOME AN ISSUE LATER ON IN
THE SHIFT...WILL PROBABLY PUT OUT AN RVS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IF
IT IS CLEAR THAT THE LAKE NO LAKE IS DRAINING THEN AN FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

.LONG RANGE...
MEAN LONG WAVE TROF HAS BEEN OVR 150W FOR MOST OF THIS SUMMER
WHCH OFTEN MEANS SPLIT SE FLOW ALF OVR THE PANHANDLE. FROM 5-WAVE
AT 500 MB THIS MEAN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR AT LEAST 5 DAYS SO THE
GENERAL UPR PATTRN APPEARS QUITE STABLE. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
GFS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE MAIN UPR LOW CENTER TO 50N 140W SAT NIGHT
THEN MOVES VERY SLOWLY NE THRU MON WITH THE FLOW ALF BACKING TO
EAST BY MON EVENING. WILL TRY TO TIME PRECIP BASED ON AK-GFS-40
THRU SUN BUT WILL NOT GO TOTALLY DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FOR NOT MUCH WIND THRU SUN. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SMALL STREAM ADVISORY...AKZ18
MARINE...SCA...PKZ12

ABJ/JC