Hurricane Force Wind Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 212356
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A STRONG STORM MOVING INTO THE CAPE SPENCER AREA THIS EVENING
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY WHILE A STRONG LOW MOVES NORTH INTO
DIXON ENTRANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.


$$

PKZ310-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL.  
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT SAT OCT 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA LAST NIGHT...THE PANHANDLE WOKE UP WITH QUITE
CHILL TEMPERATURES. AS SUN ROSE OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS...
TEMPERATURES WENT UP A BIT ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOWED THE FROST
AND FREEZE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AROUND 9 AM. THE WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE PANHANDLE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING IN TO THE NORTH EASTERN GULF. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
YAKUTAT AREA AND NORTHERN OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE LOOP
ALSO SHOWS A LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS SOUTH
EASTERN GULF FROM A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A TRIPLE
POINT IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK FROM THE PARENT LOW NEAR
SAND POINT IN ALEUTIAN.

MODEL INITIALIZATION LOOKS GOOD WITH POSITION AND TIMING OF THE
LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES BUT INTENSITY IS A BIT
WEAKER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS CLOSEST TO THE GROUND TRUE
REPORTS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING EVEN THE AVERAGE IS STILL ABOUT
5 MB HIGHER. THE GFS HAS BEEN WORKING NICELY WITH UKMET OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PREFER TO USE THE UKMET WITH THE GFS SUPPORT
FOR THE INCOMING...POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS...STORM INTO THE EASTERN
GULF LATE TONIGHT.

THE INHERITED GRIDS USED UKMET PRIMARILY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THIS MORNING MODEL RUNS SHOW A GOOD CONSISTENCY. THUS WILL
KEEP THE PERSISTING TREND AS HANDLED BY LATEST RUN OF UKMET AND
THE GFS COMBINATION. NO MAJOR EDITING IS NECESSARY. A BIT
COSMETIC ADJUSTMENT OF CENTER PRESSURE VALUES AND POSITION WILL
BE NEEDED. AS ADVERTISED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE WIND. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS REVEALS THE LOW
WOULD HAVE A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE AS IT PROPAGATING TO THE
NORTHEAST. POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER THERE. A
HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FOR
SUNDAY. THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LIKELY TO GO WITH A
WIND ADVISORY TO PAVE THE REST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE
OUTSIDE WATERS WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS. AS THE
STORM TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF...GALE AND STORM WARNINGS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
PROGRESSIVELY. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WILL LIKELY TO
HAVE GALE WARNINGS AS WELL. FINER GRAIN OF DETAILS WILL COME OUT
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AHN

.LONG RANGE...THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON A
STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AT THE HAND-OFF TIME.
WHILE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES COMING TO A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF CONSISTENCY. THE NAM STILL
SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR OUTLIER. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO
EARLIER RUNS IF JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES
SOLUTION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HOWEVER REMAINS WELL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER. MEANWHILE THE UKMET SHOWS GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN
TO RUN AND IS SPOT-ON WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THEREFORE DO NOT
SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES EARLY ON.  EXPECT STORM FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY EVENING TO DIMINISH TO
GALES AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.  WINDS WILL AT LEAST
BE ADVISORY LEVEL OVER LAND WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF 60 MPH
PLUS WINDS PARTICULARLY OVER ZONES 17-22-23.

BEHIND THIS LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS SHARPLY
AMPLIFIED WITH A TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL STEER A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE PATTERN UNDERGOES A
SHIFT MIDWEEK AS THE JET DIGS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND A VERY WEAK
RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK WAVE SKIRTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

LATE WEEK...LOOK FOR A LOW TO DEEPEN OVER BRISTOL BAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DIGGING JET OVER THE REGION.  A SLOW MOVING
FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF/PAYA AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.  AGAIN...ELEVATED WINDS
WILL BE A CONCERN.  OVERALL...PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GOING
PACKAGE.  WILL ONLY DO A LITTLE BIT OF NUDGING TO THE LATEST
RUN.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HI WND WATCH FOR AKZ017-022-023 SUN.
      ...WND ADVRY FOR REST OF ZONES SUNDAY.

MARINE...STRM WARNG FOR PKZ041-042-310.
      ...GALE WARNG FOR PKZ036-043-051.
      ...SCA FOR PKZ021-022-033>035-052-053