Gale Warning 82, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 141253
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A 992 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND MAKE
LAND FALL NEAR CAPE DECISION WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-150100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-150100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 


$$

PKZ043-150100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT  . SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-150100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 


$$

PKZ052-150100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS...
THEN RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL POSITION
OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS
NOT QUITE AS GOOD.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THE MODELS ARENT TOO BAD
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE
INITIAL FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA. POPS WILL LOWER IN THIS AREA TO CHANCE BY LATE
TONIGHT. OVER THE SOUTH...THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT LOW SHOULD
BEGIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...
LIKELY BY 12Z.

WE MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE REACHING THE SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE. AM RELUCTANT TO
CANCEL THE ADVISORY HOWEVER BECAUSE THE PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH
OR TWO IN BRIEF DOWNBURSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION BUT WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG RANGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND. THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GOING WITH GFS/UKMET SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WITH IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE WRF.

WILL BE HARD TO GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS
LOW...AS AN OPEN TROUGH MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
WENT MOSTLY WITH CURRENT GFS SOLUTION THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY...THEN WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST AND
CURRENT GFS MODEL TO GET A BETTER CONSENSUS SOLUTION ON THE NEXT
STRONG LOW TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT OR SO.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN THIS
PATTERN...WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE AT SEA LEVEL HOVERING SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A
COOLER BUT STILL MOIST WESTERLY FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THAT IS GETTING WAY OUT THERE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKZ018>020-025
MARINE...SCA PKZ033>036-041>043-051-052

MLR/TF