Gale Warning 74, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON FEB 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PANHANDLE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT THERE ARE SOME HOLES IN PLACES AND
THEY WILL GET BIGGER THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING SO PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THEM TO BURN THE
CLOUDS AWAY. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ALSO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER.

BY THE AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE YUKON. THIS WILL MAKE
PLACES IN EXPOSED AREAS BREEZY THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE GUSTING TO 40
MPH NEAR PAGY IN THE LATE EVENING. SO WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THAT AREA AND KEEP IT RUNNING THROUGH TUE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH DEVELOPING NEAR INTERIOR PASSES EARLY TUE
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE GRADIENT CONTINUING
TO INCREASE THROUGH TUE GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL AND MAYBE INTO SOUTHERN LYNN.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTH AND BE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS
RIDGE WILL PUSH UP A WARM FRONT NORTH AND ADVECT CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE AREA ON
TUE...THIS MIGHT HELP PRODUCE THE RAIN BUT THINK THERE WILL NOT
BE MUCH IF ANY SO WILL GIVE IT A CHANCE.

CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TUE WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE WEAK
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD AND BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE MOST
OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR OVER PAYA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS AND PERSIST INTO
TUE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-DAY.

.LONG RANGE...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH AN ARCTIC
HIGH OVER NORTHWEST CANADA SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INFILTRATE THE NORTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES AND POSSIBLE PERSISTENT WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS IN THE LYNN CANAL REGION. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT
WINDS WILL BE THE NORM OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WITH GUSTS OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS.

WEAK FRONTS ROTATING NORTH INTO THE GULF AND PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THU
CONCERNING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS WILL STILL LIMIT
ADVERTISING A LOT OF CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OFFSHORE FLOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
SO MAY FINALLY INTRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG IN
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. ALL AREAS MAY BENEFIT FROM INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WINDS WED AND WED NIGHT TO WARRANT MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THU THROUGH FRI.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS ARE BOUNCING AROUND WITH SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. NONE ARE INDICATING A VERY WET SOLUTION AS OF YET BUT GO
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WEAK OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE FLOW.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY...AKZ18
MARINE...SCA...PKZ11-13...PKZ22...31...34

ABJ/TAR