Gale Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 140026
OFFAJK
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST SAT JAN 13 2007 
 
WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.
 
PKZ398-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW S OF THE GULF WILL DEEPEN TO 990 MB 
120 NM S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL
DEVELOP TO 998 MB OFF CAPE DECISION EARLY MON. OUTLOOK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE. A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT. 
$$ 
 
PKZ310-141400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST- 
400 PM AST SAT JAN 13 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT LATE.
SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.  
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SE GALE 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 141234
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-150615-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A DEVELOPING LOW S OF THE GULF WILL DEEPEN TO 990 MB 120 NM S OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN. A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP TO 998
MB OFF CAPE DECISION EARLY MON. OUTLOOK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF FROM THE SW ON WED. 

$$

PKZ310-150615-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND AROUND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL IN THE
EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 150023
OFFAJK
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-151400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. A LOW ON A FRONT TO THE SW
WILL DEVELOP TO GALE 993 MB OFF CAPE DECISION MON MORNING.
OUTLOOK. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU. 
$$

PKZ310-151400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. W TO NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BY EARLY
MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...FRONTAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED W/CENTER ABOUT 200 NM
SSE OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 18Z DOWN TO AROUND 1010 MB. ASSOCD FRONT
REMAINS OFFSHORE BUT EAST OF 140W. MORE PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT
THAN ONE WOULD USUALLY THINK THROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG 135W
OR SO. 12Z GFS-190 PREFERRED (GFS-40 REMAINS BROKEN) WITH FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER PANHANDLE WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT
ALOFT. ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR MANY
RUNS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 138W AT 12Z SAT FOR
A BREAK IN PRECIP. BY 00Z SUN LOOKOUT. A STRONG WARMFRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS PER GFS WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE END FOR OUR COLD AIR. THE WARM AIR WILL BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR EAST SO THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CAN UNLOAD OVER SE ALASKA
STARTING AROUND OUR TRANSITION TIME.

.LONG RANGE...NO BIG SURPRISES IN THE LONG RANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
RAIN.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN DEALING WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON SUN.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA STILL DO NOT REVEAL A GOOD SOLUTION YET.
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON
WITH THIS LOW BUT WILL STILL KEEP GALES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF DESPITE THE WEAKER WINDS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z GFS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
RAIN OVER MOST AREAS. ONLY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SNOW INITIALLY
WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST (SKAGWAY AND HAINES) AND SOUTHEAST
(HYDER) PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BUT HOW WINDY
WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL DEPTH AND TRACK OF LOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN...SNOW INITIALLY
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE MIN GALES
DURING THE TUE TO WED TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 52. SCA 21 22 34 35 41 42 43 51.

JC/TAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 PM AST FRI JAN 12 2007

AKZ017>029-131600-
1000 PM AST FRI JAN 12 2007

...STRONG OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL TSUNAMI IMPACTS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
OVERNIGHT...STRONGER THAN NORMAL OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS COULD
DEVELOP IN OUR MARINE WATERS AS THE ENERGY FROM THE EVENT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

ANYONE ON THE WATER OR NEAR THE SHORES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE CURRENTS TO ACT DIFFERENT THAN NORMAL.

#BEZENEK JAN 07