Gale Warning 68, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 270020
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST MON FEB 26 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-271400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE YUKON WITH STRONG OUT FLOW
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
THU. A WEAK LOW OVER DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SLOWLY FILL AND DRIFT INTO CANADA THROUGH WED. 

$$

PKZ310-271400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST MON FEB 26 2007 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. NW SWELL. 
.WED...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. NW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. NE SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN FEB 25 2007

.SHORT RANGE...THE 1037 MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON/EASTERN ALASKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON WHILE THE
987 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WEAKENS AND MOVES
SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF ON MON WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS CLOUDS AND BANDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN-SNOW
SHOWERS ROTATE NORTH FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH 850 MB WHICH WILL
KEEP THE LOW LEVELS DRY BUT AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND THE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
MAIN AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE STARTING MON AFTERNOON. BECAUSE SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
VARYING...WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
JUNEAU OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ZONE 27 AND
UP TO WRANGELL IN ZONE 26. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON IS REASONABLE IN ZONES 28
AND 29 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HYDER. HYDER IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN
RIGHT NOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR MON
NIGHT (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION). EXPECT UP TO 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BY MON EVENING. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE WINDS MON AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH...THE GRADIENT JUST INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SO
ANOTHER EXTENSION TO THE WIND ADV AND WIND CHILL ADV IS LIKELY
WITH THE 4 PM PACKAGE. GALES...SMALL CRAFTS...AND STRONG GUSTS
OUT OF THE USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO
FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

WIND ADVISORY GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BY
EVENING AS THE CRITICAL LEVEL LOWERS BUT WILL EVALUATE 18Z DATA
AND OBS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A FINAL DECISION IS MADE.

.LONG RANGE...AGAIN THIS MORNING THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THEY STILL DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHAT WILL
HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ARCTIC DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE YUKON THU INTO THE WEEKEND. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE IS GOOD
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED BUT FROM THEN INTO THE WEEKEND
THERE IS LOW TO POOR FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS FOR
THE INLAND AREAS OF ZONE 29 FOR MON NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WHILE THE
700MB FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE TO PROVIDE THE MOISTURE ALONG WITH
WWA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE SNOW FALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER NIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS OF ZONE 29. ELSEWHERE...ZONES 27 AND 28 WILL SEE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COULD PICK UP AROUND 2
INCHES BY MORNING. THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE SEE MUCH SNOW
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE. FOR ZONE 26 WILL KEEP A LIKELY
POP OVER THEM AS THEY WILL BE RIGHT ON THE BORDER BUT WITH THE
MAIN MOISTURE FEED FURTHER SOUTH THINK THEY WILL SEE JUST A FEW
INCHES THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT OVER THE AREA
TUE MORNING AND MOST AREAS WILL BE ALL SNOW BUT THE THREAT OF
PREICP WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE FA TUE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED.

AS FOR THE WINDS...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS AND THROUGH OUTFLOW AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SO THIS WILL KEEP THE
FREEZING SPRAY AND GALES TO SMALL CRAFTS OVER NORTH/SOUTH
CHANNELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FROM WED NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS STILL BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS UPPER LOW OVER THE ARCTIC TUE AND AN
ASSOCIATED TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH
THIS FEATURE BUT THE NEW ENESEMBLE RUN DOES SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS
RUN WITH A TROF MOVING INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. WILL
WAIT TO SEE IF THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES INTO THE 00Z RUN. WITH
THAT IN MIND...AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE GULF A LOW WILL
SPIN UP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND DRIFT EAST TO BE OVER DIXON
ENTRANCE BY THU AFTERNOON. IF THIS SOLUTION WORKS OUT THEN THE
THREAT OF PRCIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL INCREASE. ONCE
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA BY THE WEEKEND THE LARGE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE BERING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SET UP SHOP OVER
THE CENTER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP SE AK VERY COLD...WINDY
AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WND ADV 17 18 19 25 WND CHILL ADV 19
MARINE...GALES 11 12 13 22 43 51 SCA 21 31-36 41 42 52

TAR/ABJ