Gale Warning 65, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 270010
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 26 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-271400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT IN EASTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NW CANADA SAT AND HOLD OVER SE ALASKA
AND NW CANADA THROUGH WED. 

$$

PKZ041-271400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST FRI JAN 26 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-271400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST FRI JAN 26 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-271400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST FRI JAN 26 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-271400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST FRI JAN 26 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35
KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-271400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST FRI JAN 26 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 23 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN. SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU JAN 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...TRANSITION TO EXTREMELY STABLE AIR MASS UNDERWAY
TODAY. STRONG RIDGING AND DRY WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN MESSAGE
FOR OUR FCST AREA. SUBSIDENCE WILL FLATTEN MARINE LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES TODAY.
BEST CHC FOR PRECIP AT TIMES IN SHORT RANGE WILL BE ZONE 17
YAKUTAT WHICH IS CLOSER TO STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL GULF.

HEMISPHERIC LONG WAVES EVOLVING TO A WINTER BLOCKY PATTERN. LONG
WAVE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG WEST COAST N AMERICA AND COLD CYCLONES
GETTING ANCHORED IN N PAC NR TIP OF ALEUTIANS AND HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGES USED TO CONFIRM
ANALYZED POSITIONS OF MAJOR FEATURES. ALOFT... DEEP SFC CYCLONE
CENTERED S OF COLD BAY NR 51N 163W AND IS REASONABLY WELL
POSITIONED BY NAM.  SFC HIGH CENTER IS OFF BC COAST NR 53N 135W.
170KT WEST JET BETWEEN 35-40N SPLITS APART EAST OF 160W DUE TO
BUILDING RIDGE.

MODELS AGREE RIDGING SFC/ALF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FRONT
WITH HUGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND BEYOND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
EXCEPTION IS OUR WESTERN MOST ZONE 17 WHICH WILL HAVE INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND STRONG OMEGA (LIFT) FRI W OF YAK BAY. MARINE
WX...GALES N COASTAL ZONES LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG FRONT. FARTHER
DOWN COAST SCA MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER 10FT. AVN WX...SUBSIDING
MARINE STRATUS LAYER WILL PERSIST LONGER OVER NRN COASTAL AREAS
AND DISSIPATE QUICKEST OVER INNER CHANNELS. VERY SHALLOW
CONVECTION UNDER LOWERING INVERSION CAUSING A FEW FLURRIES N AND
W OF JNU BUT THATS IT. FOG MAY BE PROBLEM FOR TAFS FRI MORNING.

.LONG RANGE...UKMET AND ECMWF NOT PICKING UP ON AMPLIFIED TROUGH
IN WESTERN GULF AS WELL AS NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER BOTH EUROPEAN
MODELS DO A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING AN INITIAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND UNDER CUTTING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF OREGON AS DO NAM AND GFS. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A SECOND PERIOD OF UNDER CUTTING BEGINNING ON
2700Z WHICH THE EUROPEANS DO NOT. CONSISTENT THEME IS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF THAT MOVES VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND OVER MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE BUT NOT ZONE 17 UNTIL 30 JAN. GOOD ENSEMBLE MEMBER
AGREEMENT FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THROUGH 0200Z. AFTER
WHICH...MODEL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AND
OCCURS EARLIER IN SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS...BY 3112Z.

GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON PROMPTED BLENDING NAM AND GFS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WEIGHTING SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF NAM. STABILITY
BETWEEN RUNS LEAD TO A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS GRIDS AND GFS UP TO
0212Z. SURFACE LOWS NOW SHOWING UP IN EASTERN GULF AT THE END OF
THE CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS IS A FAIRLY LARGE DEPARTURE FROM 12
HOURS AGO AND THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LAST NIGHTS FORECAST
IN PLACE FOR THE LAST 18-24 HOUR PERIOD.

WIDESPREAD FOG SEEMINGLY MORE AND MORE LIKELY DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE PANHANDLE AROUND 29 JAN BUT STILL
TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE TO ADD TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST YET.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA OUTER COAST MAINLY FOR SEAS...GALE TONIGHT MAINLY
         WEST OF ICY BAY.