Gale Warning 41, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 151211
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A 995 MB GALE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING WEST 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 160019
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-161400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 996 MB LOW IN THE YUKON WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE EARLY TUE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ041-161400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-161400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-161400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-161400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-161400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

.SHORT RANGE...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
INTENSITY...TIMING...AND TRACK OF A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT MOVES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE
TONIGHT AND MON. NOT ENOUGH OBS IN THAT REGION TO HELP INITIALIZE
HOW THE LOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE THE SLOWER
NAM/UKMET TRACK BUT ONLY DEEPEN THE LOW INTO THE 990S LIKE THE
NAM AS OPPOSED TO THE EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE UPPER 980S THAT THE
UKMET HAS. THEREFORE...WILL DEEPEN A LOW INTO THE MID 990S AS IT
MOVES WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MON MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN YUKON AND NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A SUBTROPICAL FEED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A MILD AIRMASS
NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON RESULTING IN HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HYDER
AREA IN ZONE 29 IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH PRECIP TYPE.
STILL IN THE 20S AND SNOWING THERE WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNT IN THAT REGION WILL GET
INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THINK IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET A WARMER ENOUGH AIRMASS IN THERE TO CHANGE IT
OVER RAIN UNTIL THE GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...SO WILL
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP POSSIBLY JUST MAKING UP INTO THE HAINES AND
SKAGWAY AREAS WHERE PRECIP COULD GO BACK TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MON AS VERY WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. IT IS STILL LIKELY
THAT A DEFORMATION BAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW MAY BRING A
BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO A PORTION OF THE NORTH OR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE ON MON WHERE WEAK FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS TO WHERE THIS BAND WILL GO AND IF IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO WARRANT HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS. WILL BE
SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SO MAY
LEAVE THE WATCH OUT FOR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR EAST
TO EFFECT THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST (YAKUTAT) BUT A LINGERING LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MON THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING
AS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A
COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE EARLY MON EVENING AND
TRANSITION ALL AREAS TO SNOW SHOWERS.

WIND...THE LOW WILL BRING WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND MON. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THE LOW
DOES IN FACT GET DEEPER WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH WIND WARNING
GUSTS ON MON. DUE TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WILL GO MAX ADVISORY.

.LONG RANGE...
BIG DILEMMA TODAY WAS TRACK AND DEPTH OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
ON FRONT NEAR 47N 146W AT 18Z SUN. CONSENSUS HERE WAS TO USE NAM
THROUGH 00Z THU TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF LOW PLUS MORE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN GULF TUE AS PER ALL
MODELS AND SEVERAL RUNS. EXPECT RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL GULF 00Z
WED WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHOWRTWAVES BUSTING THRU THE
RIDGE BY 18Z WED OR SO. BEST GUESS OF RIDGE KICKING OUT EAST OF
PANHANDLE BY 12Z THU BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN LONGER TERM DETAILS
DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING EFFECTS OF SHORTWAVES IN THIS
PATTERN.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH 18-20 22 29 LATE TONIGHT-MON
         SNOW ADV 29 TODAY
         WIND ADV 27-29

MARINE...GALES 43 51 52. ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES SCA.

TAR/JC