Gale Warning 37, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...FRONTAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED W/CENTER ABOUT 200 NM
SSE OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 18Z DOWN TO AROUND 1010 MB. ASSOCD FRONT
REMAINS OFFSHORE BUT EAST OF 140W. MORE PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT
THAN ONE WOULD USUALLY THINK THROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG 135W
OR SO. 12Z GFS-190 PREFERRED (GFS-40 REMAINS BROKEN) WITH FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER PANHANDLE WITH SHORTWAVE SUPPORT
ALOFT. ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR MANY
RUNS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 138W AT 12Z SAT FOR
A BREAK IN PRECIP. BY 00Z SUN LOOKOUT. A STRONG WARMFRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS PER GFS WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE END FOR OUR COLD AIR. THE WARM AIR WILL BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR EAST SO THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CAN UNLOAD OVER SE ALASKA
STARTING AROUND OUR TRANSITION TIME.

.LONG RANGE...NO BIG SURPRISES IN THE LONG RANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
RAIN.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN DEALING WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON SUN.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA STILL DO NOT REVEAL A GOOD SOLUTION YET.
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON
WITH THIS LOW BUT WILL STILL KEEP GALES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF DESPITE THE WEAKER WINDS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z GFS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
RAIN OVER MOST AREAS. ONLY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SNOW INITIALLY
WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST (SKAGWAY AND HAINES) AND SOUTHEAST
(HYDER) PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BUT HOW WINDY
WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL DEPTH AND TRACK OF LOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN...SNOW INITIALLY
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE MIN GALES
DURING THE TUE TO WED TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 52. SCA 21 22 34 35 41 42 43 51.

JC/TAR