Gale Warning 358, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON DEC 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A 974 MB LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.  GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN THE EASTERN GULF AND ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ARE BEING REPORTED AT BERING GLACIER.  PRECIPITATION IS
SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES IN THE HAINES AREA THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS MOVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES.  THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE INNER CHANNELS...HOWEVER A WAVE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY.  THIS WAVE
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  WHILE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS END THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 17 AND 22...ZONES 27..28 AND 29 (SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS) CONTINUE THROUGH 6 AM DUE TO THIS SECOND WAVE.

WARM AIR ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TODAY AND TONIGHT.  TUESDAY WILL SEE THE
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE.  COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE PANHANDLE AROUND THIS
WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE NORTH.  THE EXCEPTION TO THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHANNELLED LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.  IN
PARTICULAR...SKAGWAY...HAINES...AND HYDER AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE
SNOWY CONDITIONS.

IN THE SOUTH...THE SECOND WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
WILL SET UP AND GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION FOR THE HYDER AREA.
EXPECT UPWARDS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
ENDING TUESDAY.  A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PERIOD.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE IN THE
NORTH...BUT PERSISTENT SNOWFALL IN THE HAINES AREA (PARTICULARLY
THE CHILKAT VALLEY WITH LESS MARINE INFLUENCE) SHOULD PRODUCE
SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS.

CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKED VERY GOOD AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MOST
RECENT MODELS.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY CHANGES.

.LONG RANGE...MODEL FORECAST THROUGH THE MID RANGE (END OF THE
WEEK) IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE NEW MODELS SLOW THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING WAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK HEADED OUT
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY.  THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER BURST OF PRECIPITATION AND WIND FOR FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL A BIT IN THE AIR AS THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  WILL BE MAKING LITTLE CHANGES TO THAT TIME FRAME.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVY...ZONE 19 THRU NOON
         SNOW ADVY...ZONE 19 FROM NOON THRU 6AM
         HEAVY SNOW WARN...ZONE 29 FROM NOON THRU 9AM
         WIND ADVY...ZONES 17-22-23-27-28-29 VARIOUS TIMES
MARINE...STORM WARN...ZONE 52
         GALE...ZONES 22-36-41-42-43-51
         SMCR...ZONES 11-21-31-32-33-34-35

KJH - BMB