Gale Warning 348, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING IS REVEALING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLE. THIS REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE
OUTER COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GENERATING NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT
SLIGHTLY TO FAVOR MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. APART FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT AND SOME
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THE PANHANDLE IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHOULD STAY SO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUD BANDS TO FORM OVER THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS
TONIGHT WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RE-ORIENTS...BUT POPS TONIGHT
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE THAT SNOW IS
NOT TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

BIG ITEMS IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST ARE STRONG WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. FORECAST CONCERNS THAT RESULT FROM THESE TWO
ITEMS ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WIND ADVISORIES...WIND
CHILL...AND FREEZING SPRAY. FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON REFINING THE
FORECAST FOR THESE HAZARDS USING GFS AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE. PIREP
INFORMATION RECEIVED EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT WINDS
OVER ZONE 18 ARE STRONGER THAN BEING INDICATED BY EITHER THE
AIRPORT SENSOR OF THE RWIS SENSOR SO WILL KEEP THAT ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO PLANNING ON ADDING A WIND ADVISORY TO
YAKUTAT ZONE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

.LONG RANGE...THE LOW NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DISSIPATES AS ANOTHER
FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE THROUGH IT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS TRIES
TO PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH TOWARDS DIXON ENTRANCE BUT THINK
MOST OF IT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH. SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ABOUT THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CANADA WITH THE CONTINUED COLD OFF SHORE FLOW.  STILL
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR OUT
FLOW AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A
POTENTIAL TAKU EVENT FOR THE JUNEAU AREA MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING.
WILL BE CONSIDERING A WATCH FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AREA FOR
THAT TIME FRAME.

THIS MORNING MODEL RUNS STILL TRYING TO FIRM UP THE TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE NAM THIS MORNING LOOKED TO BE THE ODD MAN
BRINGING THE LOW TO THE WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND IS
FASTER WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF (00Z RUN AT LEAST)/GFS ARE NOW
TRACKING THE LOW BETWEEN THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND VANCOUVER
ISLAND.  THE FORECASTER THIS MORNING STARTED SHIFTING THE
FORECAST THAT DIRECTION AND I DID SO AS WELL...WHICH WILL LESSEN
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.. ZONE 29
HAD LIKELY OUT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND I MAY TAKE THAT DOWN TO
CHANCE BUT HYDER AREA STILL MAY END UP GETTING A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW FROM IT ANYWAY.

AS THIS LOW GOES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ANOTHER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
HANGS ON OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
SO PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORIES AKZ017>019-025>026-029
MARINE...GALES PKZ043-051 SMALL CRAFT ALL REMAINING COASTAL
            WATERS AND INNER CHANNELS

FCF - BMB