Gale Warning 308, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU NOV 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...IN THE SHORT RANGE THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INFLUENCE IS
THE ONE HEADING NORTH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING OVER ALL LOOK WEAK BY
ABOUT 4 MB. UKMET TRACK A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY PREFERRED.  ALTHOUGH I USED THE DETAILED
NAM...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM A BIT WHICH BRINGS IN A LITTLE MORE IN
LINE...PROBABLY ALSO NEED TO SPEED IT UP ABOUT 3 HOURS AS WELL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE CANADIAN PASSES DEVELOPING TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT AS WELL WITH
THE LOW MOVING TO THE HECATE STRAIT AREA TONIGHT.  WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR WIND
ADVISORIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IN THE MARINE FORECASTS GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR PASSES AS WELL.

FRONT BAND TO THE WEST NOT REALLY CREATING WEATHER FOR THE AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECT TO SEE WIND OVER THE
OFFSHORE AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS ZONES (051-052) TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BE
IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG RANGE...WEAK LOWS TRACKING N THROUGH THE FCST AREA WILL
BE WEAK AND HARD TO LOCATE THROUGH SUN.  STRONGER LOWS TRACKING
N INTO THE EASTERN GULF THRFTR BUT NO WINDS ABOVE GALES TO BE
FCST WITH THIS PKG.

ROUGHLY 985 MB LOW TRACKING N FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AT 18Z
FRI AND RAPIDLY FILLING AS IT MOVES N INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
BECOMES HARD TO IDENTIFY BEFORE IT CAN REACH WRANGELL ABOUT
00Z SAT.  THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE LOW WILL THEN SUPPORT
TWO WEAKER SURFACE LOWS...A DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW IN NORTH
CENTRAL B.C. AND SECOND ONE NEAR THE OUTER COAST NEAR SITKA
BUT CLOSED TO LESS THAN N MB AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TOWARD YAKUTAT.

THE SPREAD OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOMES IMPORTANT
BEGINNING SUN AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR FCST DOMAIN.  THE NCEP
MLSP NORMALIZED ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR 00Z TUE SHOWS THE RESULTS
OF THE WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. MODEL CHANGES RUN TO RUN ARE
ALSO SIGNIGICANT.  HWVR...THE HPC DISCUSSION INDICATES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS LIKE GFS THAN THE WEAK
VERSIONS BY ECMWF.  ONE RESULT OF THE HPC CONFIDENCE IS THAT WHILE
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT GRIDS ARE STILL USED...THE 12Z 40 KM GFS
FIELDS ARE BEING FACTORED IN SUN ONWARD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ022-031-033>036-042-043-051-052

BMB JT