Gale Warning 301, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...990 MB LOW 200 NM ENE OF SKAGWAY MOVING ENE AWAY
FM FCST AREA.  NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST FIT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT
OTRW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THU IS QUITE GOOD.  NOTE THE
PULLING AWAY OF THIS LOW ALLOWS THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENET FOR THE END OF THE LAST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES TODAY.

GOES IR LOOP SHOWS NMRS CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NE HALF OF THE
GLFALSK.  WHILE THE VORT FEATURES OVER THE GLFALSK ARE GETTING
WEAKER...WILL NOT FCST ANY TSTMS...THE SIMPLE BUOYANCY AIDING THE
CONVECTION IS STRONG. 528 DKM THICKNESS OR COLDER FOR MOST OF
THE GLF.

985 MB LOW 200 NM S OF COLD BAY WILL BE THE SOURCE OF OUR NEXT
WIND EVENT.  PLEASE NOTE THE FCST FOR THIS SYSTEM STRADDLES THE
SHORT RANGE TO LONG RANGE HANDOFF.  00Z FRI THIS LOW SHOULD BE
A 978 MB INVOF SEWARD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S FM PAYA.

.LONG RANGE...STRONG FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH GALE FORCE AND WIND ADVISORY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.  THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  MEANWHILE THE PARENT
LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STALL AND SLOWLY FILL.  IT
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF WHILE ADVECTING COLDER AIR
AND SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND DRIVES THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
INLAND.  WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SHUT
OFF BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO ALLOW COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO FILTER SOUTH
FROM THE INTERIOR.

UP TO THIS POINT...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT.  HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EVOLUTION OF A
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE JET IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.  THE 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 992MB AND SWING
IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY.  THIS
SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN IN YESTERDAYS RUN...HOWEVER IT
IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 06Z GFS VERSION.  WITH COORDINATION
WITH ANCHORAGE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE 12Z GFS AND BRING THE
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  STRONGEST WINDS (GALE FORCE)
AND HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ALSO INDICATE A LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE MODEL SHOWS A STRONG FRONT SLIDING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WHILE ANOTHER DEPICTS A LOW FORMING IN
THE CENTRAL GULF.  THEREFORE WILL KEEP NUMBERS CLOSE TO SEASONAL.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NOTE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 27 THROUGH 28 WILL BE
EXPIRED SOON AFTER THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED.  THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR ZONE 18 WILL BE KEPT TO ABOUT 6 PM.

MARINE...PLEASE NOTE AMD TO MARINE ZONES 41 AND 36...THEY HAVE
BEEN GALE BUT ARE GETTING AMDS TO SCA.  GALE 12 KEPT.
OTHER SCA...ALL OTHER ZONES EXCEPT 32.