Gale Warning 30, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON JAN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...OLD PARENT LOW HAS BEEN VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AND CURRENTLY HAS A SURFACE
LOW OF ABOUT 1014 MB 100 NM ESE OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
THE LOW WILL MOVE ESE AND ABT 12Z REACHING A POINT 60 NM W
OF SITKA.  WHILE THIS LOW TRACKS TO ESE IT WILL TRAIL A
GROWING INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO SEWARD.

NEXT IMPORTANT CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.  WHAT HAS BEEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
WILL BE MOVED EAST BY A STRONG AND LARGE SCALE RIDGE ALOFT.
12Z TUE THE  RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING N FROM THE NPAC TO OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA.  THE ARCTIC AMS
IN THE AK INTERIOR WILL BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND SHOULD GEN GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS AS FAR EAST
AS LYNN CANAL MON NIGHT.

MODELS...ONE PREFERENCE FOR THE NAM IS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR DUE TO THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK.  THE NAM TYPICALLY GIVES A MORE INTENSE AND REALISTIC
GRADIENT.  THE THE NEW HIGH RES GFS MAY HELP BUT TECHNICAL
DIFFICULTIES ARE PRESENTLY PREVENTING THEIR USE.  OTRW
A HYBRID OF GFS AND NAM IS BEING USED.

.LONG RANGE...WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE GULF INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COLD...DRY...AND
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
RANGE.

A STRONG 1045 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN YUKON
SUPPORTED BY THE GULF RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  THIS GRADIENT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AND THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW AREAS WILL BE OF
GREATEST CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
-20 AND COLDER WILL SINK SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR MIDWEEK...WHICH
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PUSH A WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF THEN INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AM STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS
WAVE WILL SURVIVE ITS TREK EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST.  ONGOING
CHANCE POPS FORECAST STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS WAVE.

FOR THE WEEKEND/START OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN INTACT OVER THE EASTERN GULF.  AGAIN IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
ANY WAVES WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS THAN CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVY...ZONES 20>26...29
      ...WIND ADVY...ZONES 17>19

MARINE...GALE...PKZ011>013-051
      ...SCA...PKZ021-022-031-034>036-041>043-052-053
FCF/JT/KJH