Gale Warning 296, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...RELATIVELY WARM AIR CONTINUES ADVANCING FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A LOW DRIFTING NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL LAST NIGHT WAS ALL LIQUID AND SNOW ON
GROUND IS ALMOST MELTED.  MID MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.  GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS WEST OF ICY BAY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD DOWNGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS AROUND NOON. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER YUKON TERRITORY
CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE ACROSS THE YAKUTAT AREA.  SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS A LITTLE GYRE OF LOW...WELL SOUTH OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH.  A SHIP OBSERVATION EARLIER
THIS MORNING NEAR THE LOW REPORTED CENTER PRESSURE ABOUT 983 MB.

MODEL CONFLICTS CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS COMPLICATED WITH TWO
LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.  PREFER TO USE THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.  THE LITTLE 983 MB GYRE WILL BEGIN TO
FILL AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND
BECOME A WEAK TROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER LOW IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.  THIS INCOMING LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY.  AS PER
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 954 MB WELL WEST OF
DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE THURSDAY.  BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO MEET A WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTH TO INCLUDE
MOST ZONES...EXCEPT HAINES AND SKAGWAY...BY NOON.  AHEAD OF THE
INCREASING WINDS...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE TONIGHT. AHN

.LONG RANGE...GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF A STORM FORCE LOW WEST OF THE DIXON
ENTRANCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
UKMET CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF THE
LOCATION AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER. NAM CONTINUES TO GENERATE A
SOLUTION QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS AND IS
DISCOUNTED FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TODAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS MODEL RUNS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 12Z ON THE 17TH. AT
THAT TIME...ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW MORE TO THE WEST INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF AND FILLS IT MORE SLOWLY THAN GFS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...ECMWF TRACKS IT SOUTHEAST WHILE CONTINUING TO FILL IT IN
ADVANCE OF A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS GETTING ABSORBED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO ENTER THE
WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SOLUTIONS SEEM PROBABLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EITHER ONE RIGHT NOW BUT HAVE OPTED TO USE
ECMWF AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR DAY 6 THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE
NECESSARY AFTER THAT TIME.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STILL BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY TOWARDS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM YAUKTAT BAY TO THE DIXON
ENTRANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HAVE
THEREFORE OPTED TO CONTINUE WINDS ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER COAST
AND ZONE 28 THAT WERE INITIATED IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THURSDAY NIGHT.

BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
HAINES...YAKUTAT...AND SKAGWAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE MIXED
PRECIP. THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO
7 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX DOES NOT REAPPEAR
IN THE JUNEAU AND HYDER FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WND ADV FOR ALL XCP AKZ018-019 THU.
MARINE...SCA FOR ALL OUTSIDE WTRS AND PKZ036 TONIGHT.
         GALE WRNG FOR PKZ036-041>043 THU.

SJA/FCF