Gale Warning 284, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...MAIN PARENT LOW OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE BERING SEA WHILE THE FRONTAL BAND IS NOW AT 18Z MOVING
THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.  THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND AND INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY AND BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE MARINE WATERS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE
IN THE GALE RANGE AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE ISOLATED INNER CHANNELS
MAY ALSO GET ELEVATED TO GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS... BUT
GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING.

OVER THE LAND STATIONS...WILL MENTION GUSTS 35 FOR THE ZONE 17
(ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS COULD BE LIKELY ON THE EXPOSED POINTS.)
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF 22 23 AND 26 27 AND 28 AND POSSIBLY 29
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE EXPOSED AREAS.  INTERIOR
OF MISTY FJORDS LIKELY NOT TO SEE THE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS THE
WRANGELL/PETERSBURG REGIONS AS WELL.  WILL BE ISSUING THE
ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PACKAGE SO WILL BE GETTING A
BETTER ISSUE OF THE TIMING BY THEN.

A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND BUT
THERE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

.LONG RANGE...THE MODELS THIS MORNING SEEM TO BE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT WILL FRESHEN GRIDS WITH 12Z
GFS40.

SE AK WILL REMAIN TO BE FAIRLY WET THROUGH THE LONG RANGE TIME
FRAME AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONSHORE. A
PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED
TROF OVER THE SW GULF FRI EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND
BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PANHANDLE
THAT NIGHT. THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ANOTHER TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUN MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MON AS A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF MON NIGHT
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS NE INTO THE NW GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING FRONT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE THAT NIGHT BUT RIGHT ON IT HEELS IS ANOTHER DEVELOPING
WAVE FOR SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUTSY
WINDS TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADV FROM THE SHORT TERM UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONES 28 AND 29.

THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS SAT AFTERNOON
BUT WILL BE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT NIGHT. THE RAIN RATES
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES QPF.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WET
WITH CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST BUT DO NOT THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNTIL MID WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW NEAR KODIAK TUE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GULF THAT
NIGHT AND MAY INCREASE THE WINDS TO A MIN GALE BUT THINK THE
WINDS OVER THE INSIDE WATERS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE...BUT WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED OUT THIS AFTERNOON

MARINE...GALE PKZ041>043-051>053
      ...SMALL CRAFT PKZ011-021-022-031>036