Gale Warning 255, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT FRI OCT 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1030 LOCAL TIME
REVEALS THE LOW CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WITH
MSAS READING OF 978 MB. NAM12 SHOWS 972 MB AT 18Z WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO BUOY 46082 READING OF 974 MB. PREFER TO USE NAM12 FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT NAM12 OUTPUTS. WILL KEEP THE CHANGES MINIMUM TO
ACCOMMODATE WITH CURRENT ADVISORIES. COORDINATED WITH YAKUTAT TO
DOWN GRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO WIND ADVISORY. THIS WIND
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH OTHER COASTAL
ZONES. STORM WARNING FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS WILL GO DOWN TO GALE
WARNING AS WELL. BASED ON NAM12...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL
SLOWLY AS IT DRIFT NORTHEAST ONSHORE AND WEAKENS TO ABOUT 977 MB
JUST NORTH OF YAKUTAT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THEN MODEL CONSENSUS CAN PLAY A ROLE FOR THE LOW AS IT BECOMES A
RESIDUAL OVER SOUTHWESTERN YUKON LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG WIND AND ROUGH SEAS. AS THE TRAILING EDGE PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA...EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE A SHIFTING
WINDS TO SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GALES CAN BE DOWN GRADED TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS. CENTRAL OUTSIDE WATERS SHOULD SEE A BIT HIGHER WINDS BUT
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE MARGINAL GALE FOR LATE THIS EVENING. CENTRAL
COASTAL ZONES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A BIT HIGHER WINDS EARLY
TONIGHT. AHN

.LONG RANGE...LITTLE OR NO CHG TO FCST PKG THROUGH AT LEAST WED.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL GOOD UNTIL MON NIGHT AND EVEN THEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STRONG JUST S OF OUR FCST DOMAIN.

SOUTH OF PANHANDLE MON NIGHT...WHILE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST
PACKAGE...A SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE TO THE S IS BEING MONITORED.
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS SPREADOUT OF GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS IS SHOWN.  THESE DIFFERENCES MAY NOT MATTER TO OUR
FORECAST DOMAIN AS THE LOW IS SUPPOSED TO TRACK NE AND
ONSHORE B.C.  HOWEVER...THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS INCLUDE
IMPORTANT TRACK DIFFERENCES THAT ARE CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN.
MODEL CONSENSUS EMPHASIS ON NEVER FULLY RECOVERS AND HEAVY
EMPHASIS ON CLIMATE TO BE USED FROM TUE ONWARD.  TRUITT

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WND ADV THRU MIDNIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
         WND ADV THRU 4 PM FOR AKZ017-020>029.

MARINE...GALE WRNG FOR ALL CSTL WTRS.