Gale Warning 249, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1140 AM ADT WED OCT 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF THE
PASS COUPLE OF DAYS IS SLOWLY SLIDING ATTM AND WILL BE OUT OF THE
GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE
THE LOW AND THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BUT AS THE
UPPER TROF DRIFTS SE THROUGH TODAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING.

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE PAYA AREA BUT THERE ARE SOME
CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH TODAY BUT THEY WILL BREAK OUT TONIGHT AND THU. THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE IS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. THE BREAKS WILL GET BIGGER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BY THU IT SHOULD PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS BY THU AFTERNOON.
WITH ALL OF THE RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SKIES
BREAKING UP TONIGHT FOG WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS
AND MAY BE DENSE IN PLACES. TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZING WARNING FOR ZONE
19 AS THEY MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND FROST ADV FOR ZONES 20
25. FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL PUT IN PATCHY FROST
AS DO NOT FEEL THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW COLD THE TEMPS WILL GET.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL REMAIN TO HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE LESS THAN 8FT. ABJ

.LONG RANGE...RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THE INCOMING
STORM IN WEAKER SIDE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TIMING AND
INTENSITY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE DOWNPLAY SIDE EVEN THOUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHOWN QUITE DIFFERENT PICTURES. THE GAP GROWS
BIGGER AND BIGGER WITH EACH AND EVERY MODEL RUN. NOT A MAJOR
SURGERY BUT THIS MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO ADJUST GRIDS BEFORE THE SPREAD
BECOMES TOO LARGE...AND AS WELL AS AN AMPLE LEAD TIME IS
CONCERNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...JUST EAST OF
KODIAK...EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS...THE CENTER PRESSURE SHOULD BE 987 MB AS IT PROPAGATES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW
DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO INLAND AND BECOMES A
RESIDUAL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON. THE SECOND LOW...ABOUT 985
MB...COMES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...JUST NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN STALLS AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE WORST POSSIBLE SCENARIO IN MIND...MUCH EXCEEDING THE
MODEL OUTPUTS...A STRONG FRONT AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW WILL ARRIVE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WITH OCCASIONAL STORM FORCE OVER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INNER PASSAGES SHOULD
ALSO EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND OF THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW. WAVE MODEL ALSO SHOWS A DOWNPLAY
TENDENCY...BUT WITH THE SAME TOKEN...WILL KEEP THE COMBINED SEAS
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL OUTPUTS. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZE WARNING AKZ19
         FROST ADV...AKZ20 25
MARINE...SCA...PKZ52 41-43