Gale Warning 246, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT SUN OCT 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS UPPER TROF WILL DRIFT EAST TO BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE BY MON MORNING AND BE INTO CANADA BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AND THERE WILL BE LARGER BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS.

THERE STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THERE MAY BE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS AS THE TROF MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. THERE IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE WATER
TEMPS IS WARMER OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WINDS NO MORE THAN 15 MPH
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE SURFACE TROF MOVES
INLAND BUT THINK THEY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
AND INSIDE MARINE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NE GULF AS A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL BE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL WILL INCREASE TO
MIN GALES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON AND SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THIS APPROACHING FRONT SEE LONG TERM.

.LONG RANGE...00Z TUE A 968 MB LOW NEAR KING SALMON WILL HAVE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SEWARD IN AN ARC TO THE
SSW TO A WAVE 400 NM S OF KODIAK.  AS THIS WAVE TRACKS
TOWARD PRINCE WILLAIM SOUND TUE NIGHT IT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF.

MON NIGHT THOSE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND
PROGRESSIVELY S IN THE EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE COASTAL
WATERS...REACHING THE OUTER COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
ABOUT 12Z TUE.

LARGE SCALE AND FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE LARGE SCALE IN THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PACIFIC IS IMPORTANT FOR US FOR TUE AND WED.  STRONG
THERMAL CONTRAST ON A LARGE SCALE HAS ALREADY SET UP WEST OF THE
DATELINE.  NCEP SURFACE MAP FOR 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS A 972 MB
LOW 600 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PEN.  THIS
LOW...AS WELL AS CYCLOGENETIC FEATURES TO PROGRESSIVELY DEVELOP
EWD ACROSS THE NPAC...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SCALE THERMAL
CONTRAST.  THE COLD OUTFLOW NOW EXTENDS FROM ASIA NORTH OF JAPAN
TO THE DATELINE.  THE WARM SIDE INCLUDES A STRONG TROPICAL
CONNECTION EXTENDING TO ABOUT 1200 NM N OF THE EQUATOR...AND
EXTENDS TO THE VICINITY OF THE THE LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA.

MODELS...IMPROVING CONSENSUS AMOUNG THE GFS...NAM...AND UKMET.
THIS NEW CONSENSUS IS CONVERGING ON THE NORTHERN CLUSTERING OF
ENSEMBLE GFS SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HRS AGO.  ALSO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRES FOR THE LOW CENTER IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO
GFS OPERATIONAL.

FOR 12Z TUE THE NAM HAS A 962 MB IN COOK INLET...THE
GFS AND UKMET BOTH HAVE A 973 MB IN THE YUKON KUSKOWKIM DELTA
BUT THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL
PRESSURES ARE CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTERS.  BLEND OF NAM95 AND
GFS40 USED AS PRIMARILY GUIDANCE...AND THE GFS40 BEYOND 00Z WED.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...SCA...ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS...PKZ22...12

ABJ JT