Gale Warning 24, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...980 MB LOW 600 NM S OF SEWARD AT THIS TIME
HAS NE TRACK WITH LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING.
TRACK SHOULD HAVE 975 MB LOW WITH NE TRACK ONSHORE OVER
CAPE DECISION ABOUT 10Z TONIGHT...NOTE THE 12Z GFS190
IS USED FOR TRACK.  SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST DEPICTS
A WIDE SPREAD OF SURFACE PRESSURE OVER MOST OF PANHANDLE
FOR THE LANDFALL OF THIS LOW.  GFS 12Z RUN IS SIMILAR TO
SREF MEAN.

AFTER LANDFALL THE GFS SOLN SEEMS FAST TO REDEVELOP
THE LOW INLAND ABOUT 100 MI ESE OF DEASE LAKE IN B.C....
THE SURFACE LOW FILL SLOWLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

.LONG RANGE...MODELS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE.

MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE JET
FAVORS A RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF.  AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST AND THE TROF SLIDES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING TO 1047 MB OVER YUKON
WILL ALSO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -30C ALSO TRAVERSE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MEANING TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE NORTHERN AND THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY BUT WITH SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO CONTEND WITH.

THE COLD AND DRY PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW NEAR KODIAK.  AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA.  WARMER AIR STARTS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SNOWFALL IN THE ONSET. THIS FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
PANHANDLE COAST FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT.  WITH A
STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS MODEL
TENDS TO HAVE A BIAS IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOO RAPIDLY.  FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS TIMING...AS DID THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH...ZONES 21...24...25
      ...SNOW ADVY...ZONES 20...22...AND ERN ZONE 29
      ...WIND ADVY...ZONES 27...28...AND WRN ZONE 29

MARINE...STORM...PKZ041-310
      ...GALE...PKZ035-036-042-043
      ...SCA...ALL REMAINING WATERS