Gale Warning 238, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT THU SEP 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF BARANOF ISLAND THIS MORNING. RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING MANY CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTH OF
SITKA THOUGH THE TREND IS DIMINISHING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF SITKA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LINGERING LONGEST ALONG THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
PLANNED. HAVE NUDGED THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE LATEST RUN OF NAM
AND WILL LEAVE THE WIND FORECAST UNCHANGED SINCE THE CURRENT NAM
WIND FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE LIGHT. BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDY TONIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BUT STILL
THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. HAVE NOT YET DECIDED
ON A FROST ADVISORY SINCE DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL YET FOR HOW
COLD AND HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE.

UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MAKE
FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT WITH
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT WIND OVER
THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIMITED TO
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AND STEADILY
INCREASE BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST
AREA. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD
BE ARRIVING ON THE OUTER COAST AND WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
WILL BE PICKING UP OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD NOT
REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. FCF

.LONG RANGE...WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AS A
SERIES OF LOWS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...FOLLOWED BY AN
ONSHORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE LATER HALF.  LONG RANGE MODELS
REMAIN IS GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THE PERIOD AND REMAIN ALONG THE
SAME TRACK AS PREVIOUS RUNS.  THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING
CHANGES TO LAST NIGHTS PACKAGE.

A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AT THE HAND-OFF
TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.  MODELS BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SMCR SPREADING
INTO THE INNER CHANNELS. GALES IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE USUAL WINDIER CHANNELS.  GIVEN THE RELATIVE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AM THINKING THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH FROPA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  WILL WAIT
FOR MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER.  BEHIND THE FRONT THERE
WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AS THE COOLER AIR SURROUNDING THE
LOW PASSES OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE JET DIRECTS YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENS IT TO AROUND 985 MB.  THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO FRIDAY NIGHTS
SYSTEM. AGAIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES WILL BE A
CONCERN.  BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE JET STICKS TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW...KEEPING LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...PKZ012-041>043-051