Gale Warning 236, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1147 AM ADT MON SEP 24 2007

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THIS MORNING MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
FOR OVER ALL PATTERN.  FOR THE STORM IN BERING SEA...THE NAM
STILL SHOWS A BIT SLOWER SOLUTION AND A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN OTHER MODELS.  THE BERING SEA SYSTEM KEEPS SENDING A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  WOULD LIKE TO BLEND GRIDS WITH THE GFS190 PRIMARILY AND
NAM12 FOR EARLIER PORTIONS OF TONIGHT.  THE TRAILING EDGE OF
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
EAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT IMPULSE ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN GULF MIDDAY TUESDAY SWEEPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE WILL FORM BEHIND BUT THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH IT EAST QUICKLY.

LOWER LEVEL...MODEL COLLABORATIONS GET BETTER LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION
AND INTENSITY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NEXT TROUGH ALREADY MOVES IN THE
EASTERN GULF BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH ITS PARENT LOW OVER THE
TERRITORY OF SOUTHWESTERN YUKON.  THE YUKON LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST WITH ITS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIODS BUT WINDS.  WIND FIELD AMONG THE PASSING
WAVES APPEARS A BIT RELAXED FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  SHOULD KEEP
WIND FIELD BELOW GALE FORCE BUT STAY ON SMALL CRAFT FOR ENTIRE
OUTSIDE WATERS.  MOST INNER CHANNELS SHOULD SEE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.  WILL TWEAK WINDY WORDING TO BREEZY FOR MOST
ZONES AS WELL. AHN

.LONG RANGE...VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN
AND SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO EXISTING GRIDS.

LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEST WINDING DOWN ALONG THE OUTER
COAST. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL OF SEAK WILL BE UNDER A SOLID SW FLOW WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 8 FT OR BETTER ALONG THE OUTER COAST EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN 52 AND SOUTHERN 41.

A WEAK LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES IS MOVING EAST A LITTLE FASTER IN
THE CURRENT MODEL RUN SO WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE THEM ON THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND SMALL
CRAFT.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEK IS NOW PROJECTED
TO DEEPEN TO 975 MB OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM THE SHELIKOF
STRAIT/KENNEDY ENTRANCE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THIS TIME
AND WILL ALREADY BE GENERATING SOUTHEAST GALES IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST TO THE EASTERN GULF AND SOLID
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM CAPE SUCKLING TO THE DIXON
ENTRANCE. STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER. INNER CHANNELS WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION WILL
SEE STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST GALES IN THE DIXON ENTRANCE WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL DIMINISH
STEADILY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF AND BEGINS TO FILL. SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM
THE NORTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. FCF
.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.

MARINE...SCA TONIGHT FOR ALL OUTSIDE WATERS AND PKZ036.
         SCA TUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT PKZ012.