Gale Warning 233, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1106 AM ADT SAT SEP 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT SPINNING IN
PLACE...WITH A COUPLE OF NARROW SINGLE CELL WIDTH BANDS DRIFTING
N-NE-E DEPENDING ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE CELLS ON SHORE FROM
SITKA NORTHWARD TO YAKUTAT BAY.  YAKUTAT HAD A BRIEF SHOWER FROM
ONE OF THESE CELLS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY CITY THAT WILL
HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THESE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
THE ELFIN COVE/PELICAN AREA THROUGH THE MID DAY TIME FRAME.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/VORTICITY LOBE IS SUPPOSE TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE REGION FROM GLACIER BAY TO ENDICOTT ARM WITH
MID CLOUDS AND AND ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT MOST THE MAIN
CLOUDS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THERE IS
A BAND OF LOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM CROSS SOUND/GLACIER BAY
TO WRANGELL/PETERSBURG AND THEN EAST OF CLARENCE STRAIT.  MOST OF
THE BAND IS EITHER DRIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST OR
SCATTERING OUT.  WE HAVE UPDATED A FEW OF THE ZONES THIS MORNING
TO ADD A TOUCH MORE SUN FOR TODAY.

NEXT MAIN LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF COLD BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THEY WILL
BE MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN SLOW SHOULD BE
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING AND THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITKA ABOUT 150 MILES OR SO. AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING WEATHER FRONT EXPECT TO SEE GALES DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS OFF SHORE WATERS AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE GALES TO 45 KT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WATERS (PKZ051-052) AND MIN GALES TO PKZ041 BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE HELD THE GALES FOR PKZ052 TO 45KT BUT IT
COULD BE POSSIBLE TO SEE MIN STORMS THERE ON SUNDAY.  MAY END UP
WITH WIND ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED FOR COASTAL ZONES (17-22-23)
FOR SUNDAY. WILL CHECK THIS OVER AND MAKE THE DECISION LATER AND
WILL CONSULT WITH WSO YAKUTAT FOR THEIR AREA.

RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH PANHANDLE
REGIONS. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME OF THE LOCAL STREAMS
THOUGH.  CONFERRED WITH THE RFC AND WE THINK AT THIS TIME THAT
THE FORECASTED STREAMS COULD COME CLOSE TO ACTION STAGES
(BANKFULL ESSENTIALLY)...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THE
PRESENT. MAY GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEADS UP STATEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. BMB

.LONG RANGE...LATEST MODELS SHOW A BIT HIGHER INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT LOW MOVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS
THE NORTHERN EASTERN GULF EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  WILL INCREASE
WIND FIELD A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  INNER CHANNELS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS.  WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS OF PANHANDLE.  MODEL
CONSENSUS HINTS THE LOW QUICKLY JUMPS INTO NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT MUCH CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE REST
OF LONG TERM PERIODS DUE TO A GREAT UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL OUTPUTS.
IN GENERAL...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF BREAK OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE AT THIS TIME...BUT SEE SHORT RANGE FOR POSSIBLES.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT PKZ022-041>043-051>053.
         GALES DEVELOPING PKZ022-041>043-051-052-310 SUNDAY.