Gale Warning 202, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
940 AM ADT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...
ANALYSIS - COLD MAJOR UPR LOW OVR SRN KODIAK ISL 12Z FRI HAS -31C
AT 500 MB AS PER PADQ RAOB. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM DRIVING A
SPLIT SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SUPPORTS A 996 MB
SFC CENTER. WEST JET 250 MB FROM SRN JAPAN TO A SPLIT EXIT
ROUGHLY 47N 145W AND POISED TO PUNCH THRU TO SEATTLE WITH A CLOUD
STREAK ON SATELLITE LOOP. OLD OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CENTRAL GULF
W/NEAR GALE FORCE WIND SO FAR AND PRECIP THERE. PACG RADAR SHOWS
POORLY ORGANIZED RAIN BAND A BIT OFF THE COAST BUT VIS SATELLITE
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOWING NICE DAY INLAND AND SOUTH W/PATCHY FOG.

FORECASTS - ALL 12Z MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAJOR SYSTEM AND SUPPORTED BY JET POSITION.
ALL AGREE TO RE-DEVELOP THE MAJOR UPR CENTER OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES BY 06Z SUN WHICH THE NCEP MODELS HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR
DAYS. GFS/UKMET PREFERRED ON THIS SOLUTION. TWO PROBLEMS: 1) DO
WE GO GALES IN SOUTHERN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON? AND 2) WHEN WHERE
PRECIP? CANADIANS ARE CONVINCED ON THE GALES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE SO ACCEPTED. AT
TRANSITION WILL KEEP RAIN ALONG SOUTHERN ZONES W/APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND WARM MAX TEMPS NORTHERN ZONES
ON SAT DUE TO SUNSHINE...OFFSHORE FLOW...AND 850 MB TEMP FCSTS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH.

.LONG RANGE...THE GFS/UKMET CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON AND IS ALSO THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE. A LOW IN THE MID 980S WILL BE
OFF THE COAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES BY SAT NIGHT...WEAKEN INTO
THE MID 990S ON SUN...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THERE AND DISSIPATE
SUN THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING WHILE A WEAK ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN GULF.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM IS PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE. THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. BELIEVE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY SAT NIGHT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING SEA
LEVEL...BUT BY LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT TO SEA LEVEL. SUN NIGHT THE FRONT FALLS APART
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL KEEP MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF.

THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. GALES NORTH
OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT OR LESS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
SOUTHERN CLARENCE WILL DIMINISH INTO MON...WHILE WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER CHANNELS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TUE THROUGH FRI PORTION OF THE LONG
RANGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL VERY LARGE
IN HANDLING THE NEXT LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE GULF. ECMWF
STILL TRENDING TO A POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THAT WOULD
KEEP SOME POPS OVER THE PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS AND MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TRACK IT
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE PANHANDLE FAIRLY DRY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AND WILL NOT BE
CHANGED.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA PKZ041-043..051 AND 052. GALES SAT 041 041.

JC/TAR