Gale Warning 201, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 091145
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD FROM A 987 MB LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MONDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-100100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING
TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.  
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT LATE. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-100100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.  
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-100100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN LATE.  
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-100100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. S
SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-100100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 092328
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-101400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 985 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO FILL. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ041-101400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-101400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-101400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING.  
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-101400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-101400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
940 AM ADT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...
ANALYSIS - COLD MAJOR UPR LOW OVR SRN KODIAK ISL 12Z FRI HAS -31C
AT 500 MB AS PER PADQ RAOB. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM DRIVING A
SPLIT SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SUPPORTS A 996 MB
SFC CENTER. WEST JET 250 MB FROM SRN JAPAN TO A SPLIT EXIT
ROUGHLY 47N 145W AND POISED TO PUNCH THRU TO SEATTLE WITH A CLOUD
STREAK ON SATELLITE LOOP. OLD OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CENTRAL GULF
W/NEAR GALE FORCE WIND SO FAR AND PRECIP THERE. PACG RADAR SHOWS
POORLY ORGANIZED RAIN BAND A BIT OFF THE COAST BUT VIS SATELLITE
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOWING NICE DAY INLAND AND SOUTH W/PATCHY FOG.

FORECASTS - ALL 12Z MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAJOR SYSTEM AND SUPPORTED BY JET POSITION.
ALL AGREE TO RE-DEVELOP THE MAJOR UPR CENTER OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES BY 06Z SUN WHICH THE NCEP MODELS HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR
DAYS. GFS/UKMET PREFERRED ON THIS SOLUTION. TWO PROBLEMS: 1) DO
WE GO GALES IN SOUTHERN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON? AND 2) WHEN WHERE
PRECIP? CANADIANS ARE CONVINCED ON THE GALES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE SO ACCEPTED. AT
TRANSITION WILL KEEP RAIN ALONG SOUTHERN ZONES W/APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND WARM MAX TEMPS NORTHERN ZONES
ON SAT DUE TO SUNSHINE...OFFSHORE FLOW...AND 850 MB TEMP FCSTS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH.

.LONG RANGE...THE GFS/UKMET CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON AND IS ALSO THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE. A LOW IN THE MID 980S WILL BE
OFF THE COAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES BY SAT NIGHT...WEAKEN INTO
THE MID 990S ON SUN...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THERE AND DISSIPATE
SUN THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING WHILE A WEAK ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN GULF.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM IS PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE. THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. BELIEVE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY SAT NIGHT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING SEA
LEVEL...BUT BY LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT TO SEA LEVEL. SUN NIGHT THE FRONT FALLS APART
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL KEEP MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF.

THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. GALES NORTH
OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT OR LESS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
SOUTHERN CLARENCE WILL DIMINISH INTO MON...WHILE WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER CHANNELS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TUE THROUGH FRI PORTION OF THE LONG
RANGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL VERY LARGE
IN HANDLING THE NEXT LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE GULF. ECMWF
STILL TRENDING TO A POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THAT WOULD
KEEP SOME POPS OVER THE PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS AND MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TRACK IT
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE PANHANDLE FAIRLY DRY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AND WILL NOT BE
CHANGED.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA PKZ041-043..051 AND 052. GALES SAT 041 041.

JC/TAR