Gale Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 040035
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST WED JAN 3 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-041400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 980 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT DEEPENS TO
972 MB AND MOVES TO SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THU. THIS LOW WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TO NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER FRI.

$$

PKZ310-041400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST WED JAN 3 2007 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 041217
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST THU JAN 4 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 982 MB LOW SW OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO ABOUT 974 MB AND
MOVE TO THE FAR NE GULF BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
E THROUGH FAR NORTHERN SE ALASKA AND WEAKEN EARLY FRI. A WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND BY EARLY FRI THEN REMAIN
THERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE
PACIFIC SAT AND MOVE INTO THE FAR SE GULF BY EARLY SUN...LIKELY
CROSSING THE S HALF OF SE ALASKA BY SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST THU JAN 4 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...NW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 042347
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST THU JAN 4 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-051600-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A LOW SW OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO ABOUT 974 MB AS IT
MOVES TO THE NE GULF BY FRI MORNING.  A SERIES OF WEAKER LOWS
WILL THROUGH THE NE GULF AND ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.   OUTLOOK
 A STRONG ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH  MON AND
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ310-051600-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST THU JAN 4 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND AROUND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW IN
THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. SW SWELL.
SNOW.  
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. W SWELL. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1145 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...NO PUBLIC
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
FINALLY A BRIEF QUIET WEATHER PERIOD OVER THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND RAIN HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...BUT WHILE ALL OF THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THEY ALL AGREE IT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SO WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE REGION STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.

WHILE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST WEEK
OR SO. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO
BOTH WIND AND SEAS.

.LONG RANGE...SEVERAL MORE STORMS RIDING STG WLY PACIFIC
JETSTREAM TOWARD SE AK INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN JET BUCKLES AS
RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND VERY COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
CANADA. LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW COLDER NW FLOW
AFFECTING FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.

A HINT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS OVER PANHANDLE THUR. AIR
STABILITY DECREASES PER MODEL INDICIES SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS THUR...MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTHERN ZONES. FAST MOVING SYSTEM
CURRENTLY AT 40N 165W SCREAMS ALONG 160 KT JET AND... ACCORDING
TO THE NEW HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS MODEL... MAKES LANDFALL FRI NEAR
CAPE FAIRWEATHER. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE STORM FORCE SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF IT FRI OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND POSSIBLE
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS. THE LONG FETCH OF WEST WIND BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRDUCE SWELLS OVER 30 FT AIMED AT THE FAR SOUTH COAST
AND DIXON ENTRANCE EARLY SAT. AT THE OTHER END OF THE PANHANDLE
FRI... PRESSURE GRADIENT FCSTS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST GALE
FORCE WINDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SNOW POTENTIAL NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAINES TO YAKUTAT WHERE COOL
AIR LEFT BEHIND THUR MAY OR MAY NOT SCOUR OUT FRI. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW SAT AND SUN WILL KEEP POPS HIGH... PARTICULARLY
SOUTH PANHANDLE.

BY MON THE LONG WLY JET FINALLY BUCKLES AROUND ANCHORING LONG
WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE N PAC AND CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS VERIFIES
NW FLOW ALF DEVELOPS OVER MOST OF AK NEXT WEEK. CURRENT SFC TEMPS
AROUND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE IN AK AND SIBERIA HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN
THE -30F TO -50F RANGE FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THOSE EXTREME TEMPS
WONT BE FELT IN SE AK... BLO AVE TEMPS (TEENS AND 20S) MAY BE
HEADED OUR WAY AGAIN. TA

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA PKZ022-041>043-051>052