Gale Warning 157, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1130 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LARGE SCALE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW. ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING MORE OF A
NORTHWEST TRACK THAN WAS EARLIER ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS
IS LEADING TO DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH WIND EVENT PANNING
OUT AS EXPECTED. BUOY DATA ARE ONLY SHOWING STORM FORCE GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARER TO THE COAST.
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE ANY OF THE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS THAT ARE NOW IN PLACE.

THE WINDOW FOR THE STRONGER WINDS APPEARS TO BE RATHER BRIEF AS
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SOME SITES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH...AND WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE.

CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND REMAINS. QPF VALUES
NEAR GUSTAVUS LOOK TO BE A BIT OVERDONE...LIKELY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF MOUNT FAIRWEATHER. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MAINLY
LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT
MORE.

.LONG RANGE...HI AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH
CYCLONE ANCHORED JUST SOUTH OF ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO NW TERRITORIES. MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
INTO SE AK FROM SUBTROPICS PERSISTS SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. GLOBAL
MODEL FCSTS FOR THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK SHOW
THE RIDGE AXIS FLATTENING IN TIME AND THE ALEUTIAN CYCLONE
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST. SUCH A CHANGE WOULD
REPOSITION A STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM FARTHER SOUTH TO ABOUT 40N
LEAVING A LIGHT BUT COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO
SE AK. HAVING THE JET THAT FAR SOUTH WOULD ALSO MEAN A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
ABV AVE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE STARTING TUE.

ANIMATION OF THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FRI MORNING
SUPPORTS THE MODEL DEPICTION THAT THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 50N 170W. NEXT FRONTAL WAVE FOR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS ROUNDING BOTTOM OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND IS FCST
TO SLING N THEN NW JUST OFF THE SE AK COAST SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING. GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK
EARLY TUE BUT IT PUSHES INLAND NEAR DIXON ENT RATHER THAN CURL
FARTHER N LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FCSTR
THINKING LAST NIGHT AND WOULD BE START OF A FEW DRIER DAYS WITH
THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON. TA

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING TIL 6 PM AKZ027>028 HIGH WIND WARNING
      TIL 9 PM AKZ023 HIGH WIND WARNING TIL MIDNIGHT AKZ022 WIND
      ADVISORY TIL 9 PM AKZ026 WIND ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT
      AKZ020-021-024-025 WIND ADVISORY TIL 3 AM AKZ018>019
MARINE...STORM WARNING PKZ310-041>043-051>052 GALE WARNING
      PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036 SCA PKZ053