Gale Warning 155, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT TUE MAR 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...NONE OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING
WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE LOWS OVER THE GULF...IN PARTICULAR THE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS IS GOING TO MAKE THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST DIFFICULT THROUGH TOMORROW AS MORE WEAK LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER RESOLUTION NAM WILL BE USED FOR THE TONIGHT AND WED
FORECAST PERIODS IN HANDLING THE WEAK LOWS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO POOR
INITIALIZATION.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE A LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BARANOF ISLAND WITH A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE BEHIND IT. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
STEADIER PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE NEXT
WEAK LOW MOVES NORTH. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SECOND LOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED WHERE PRECIP WILL TURN TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR MOVES NORTH WITH THE LOW...THEN BACK TO SNOW LATE WED
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK IN. HYDER IS AN AREA OF
CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT AND MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THEM.
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF MAY INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL AT LEAST BRING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
SNOW LATE NIGHT INTO WED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST ON WED BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES. ZONE 17 (YAKUTAT) WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE LOWS STAYING SOUTH AND INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM DRY TONIGHT AND WED BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

WIND...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST AS TRACK AND INTENSITY OF NEXT LOW
HAS CHANGED. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR ZONES 27 AND
28...AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR 26 AND 29 SOUTHERN HALF. FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF WIND ADVISORIES IN 18 AND 19 LOOK GOOD AND MAY ADD
ZONE 17 FOR OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. MAY WAIT UNTIL 18Z TO
EVALUATE OTHER AREAS. GALES SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
LOOKS GOOD BUT DUE TO A DIFFERENT TRACK MAY NEED TO LOWER OUTSIDE
WATERS BELOW GALE.

.LONG RANGE...
AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ALONG 160W AS PER GFS-190 12Z RUN -
BUT...THAT LEAVES A COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
12Z FRI WITH -36C AT 500 MB. WINTER WILL NOT GO AWAY. THIS LOW
CENTER SLOWLY MOVES SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ONLY TO CAUSE SOME
COOLER FLOW FROM THE NW ALOFT OVER SE ALASKA. SOME SUN WILL WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS BUT NIGHTS WILL STILL BE COLD. ANOTHER COLD LOW
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF NEXT MON WITH WINTER TEMPS AND SOME
ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PANHANDLE. NO SPRINGTIME YET.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING...AKZ22 FOR TODAY
         HIGH WIND WARNING...AKZ27 AND 28 FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED
         SNOW ADV...AKZ20 21 24 23 26 FOR TODAY
         WIND ADV...AKZ18-26 AND 29 FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED

MARINE...GALE...PKZ51 41-43 11-13 22 21 33 35 36
         SCA...PKZ52 32 31