Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2007

Gale Warning 112, NWS Juneau, AK

March 1, 2007

NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Mar 1, 2007, 11:00 AM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 1, 2007, 11:00 AM AKST (20:00 UTC)
Expired
Mar 3, 2007, 11:00 AM AKST
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 1, 6:00 AM AKST, 5 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 6:00 AM AKST, 5 hours before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007

.SHORT RANGE...
UPDATE - 18Z SURFACE ANALYSES DIFFER FROM MODEL 18Z MSLP PROGS
BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REALITY PLACES THE GULF
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH BY ABOUT 100 NM. THIS MEANS THAT
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO BE
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE TRIPLE POINT IS ALSO JUST OFF THE COAST
AND WILL MERGE OR MAY BECOME THE MAIN SURFACE LOW.

HAVE NEVER SEEN ENTIRE WEB SITE MAP INDICATING CURRENT WARNINGS
IN ALL ZONES. THE RARE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ISSUED INDICATE A BAD
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW FOR LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO FRONTS BOTH OF WHICH COULD CLAIM TO BE
ARCTIC AIR. ONE ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB SFC LOW IS IN THE EASTERN GULF AS OF 18Z
THESE AND THE UPPER FLOW ARE CAUSING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVER
ENTIRE PANHANDLE. A 1040 HIGH CELL OVER THE ALCAN AND YUKON HAS
SET UP A STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING COLD AIR
FLOWING UNDER THE OVERRUNNING. WARNINGS RANGE FROM BLIZZARD TO
WIND AND HEAVY SNOW PLUS FREEZING SPRAY. RELUCTANT TO GET OFF THE
HORSE IN MIDSTREAM. WILL USE THE NAM-40 FOR DETAILS BUT WITH FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER NAM SOLUTION
CAUSE IT KEEPS BETTER TRACK OF TWO LOW CENTERS AS SECOND CENTER
DEVELOPS ON FRONT WELL TO SOUTH EARLY FRI. TWO LOWS MERGE INTO
ONE CENTER OVER CRAIG 00Z SAT THEN MOVES ONSHORE FRI NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAPPEN WITH THESE TWO LOWS.

.LONG RANGE...LOOKS LIKE THE POSSIBILITY FOR BAD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  OVER THE WEEKEND
A SECOND LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE ONSHORE IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN...HOWEVER TO THE NORTH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
SO THE PRECIP UP THAT DIRECTION WILL BE ALL SNOW.  GFS 40 IS
CURRENTLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS IT KEEPS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
LOWER FOR A LONGER DURATION...WHERE ETA SEEMS TO FILL THE LOW
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST
PART DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME ARE NOT
EXTREME. FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...ALLOWING A FULL
BLOWN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ON THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MEANS THAT THE CURRENT TREND OF
SURFACE LOWS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL NOT GO AWAY ANYTIME
SOON.  MODELS ARE DIFFERING A BIT ON WHAT EXACTLY IS GOING TO
HAPPEN AT THE SURFACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE TREND FOR
GENERALIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF DEFINITELY CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...SO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...17 WIND WARNING. 18 19 WINTER STORM. 20 21 BLIZZARD. 22
23
WINTER STORM. 25 BLIZZARD. 26 27 28 29 WINTER STORM.
MARINE...STORM 11 12 13 22 43 51. ALL OTHERS GALE.

LF/JC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 1, 9:48 AM AKST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 11:00 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK36 hr
Feb 28, 11:00 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK24 hr
Feb 28, 11:00 PM AKSTStorm WarningAJK24 hr
Feb 28, 11:00 PM AKSTStorm WarningAJK24 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2007Every gale warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.