Gale Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED JAN 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SURFACE LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE FAIRWEATHER
RANGE ESSENTIALLY INTO NORTHWEST CANADA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE LAST FEW LOWS MOVED THROUGH IS BEING
EJECTED FROM THE GULF BY A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVED INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS EXPECTED SO WILL DROP THOSE ADVISORIES THIS MORNING.

STILL SOME HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING IN HAINES AND VICINITY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE WARNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON (3 PM)
BY 10 AM (THE RECENT UPDATE TIME.) CONTINUING TO SNOW HEAVY IN
THE HYDER AREA OF AKZ029 (12 INCHES OVERNIGHT)...SO WILL ISSUE
SNOW WARNING FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL.  ALSO WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WILL ISSUE
A SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 3 PM FOR AKZ017.

A FAIRLY BRISK WEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING IN
SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE RIDGE I
MOVING EAST AS WELL.

EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO IMPACT THE COAST AKZ022-23 AND 27 THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALSO WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH THE
LYNN CANAL REGION WILL OPEN UP REVERSING THE GRADIENT IN NORTH
LYNN CANAL.  STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE RIDGE IS BEING MOVED AS A STRONG LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND-KENAI PENINSULA AREA.  THE OFF SHORE WATERS WILL
SEE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH THIS...BUT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
(WITH EXCEPTION OF PKZ052) WILL MAKE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT WILL START TO
SPREAD INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST THURSDAY.

.LONG RANGE...THE BULK OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THROUGH LATE 29 JAN LIE WEST OF ZONE 17 AND ARE ORIENTED
NORTH SOUTH. BIG CHANGES OCCUR BY 01 FEB (DAY 8) WITH A LOT OF
MSLP UNCERTAINTY CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. OVERALL
THEME IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDGE PAIR THAT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE GULF THROUGH DAY 8 WITH
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES RIDING UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD INTO
B.C AND YUKON A LITTLE EARLIER ON THURSDAY NIGHT VICE FRIDAY AND
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG OR PERSISTENT AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS LIMITED TO POINTS SOUTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND UNTIL MID DAY 28 JAN. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING
UP OVER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

BLENDED NAM AND GFS40 UP TO 2706Z WHEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOWS UP. THEREAFTER,
BEGAN BLENDING GFS40 WITH PROGRESSIVELY GREATER WEIGHTS GIVEN TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...GALE WARNING PKZ013-022-043 ...SML CRFT ADVSY
PKZ011-012-021-031>036-041-042-051-052
MARINE...HEAVY SNOW WARNING AKZ019 EXTENDED UNTIL 3 P AM ...HEAVY
SNOW WARNING AKZ018 AND 29 UNTIL 3 PM ...SNOW ADVISORY AKZ017 TO
3 PM ...WIND ADVISORY AKZ027>029 CANCELLED ...WIND ADVISORY
AKZ023 9AM TO 6 PM ...WIND ADVISORY AKZ022 9AM TO 9 PM ...WIND
ADVISORY AKZ018-019 3PM TO 9 PM  ...WIND ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED
FOR AKZ027 3PM TO 9 PM