Wind Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 252309
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

AKZ225-260400-
/X.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070126T0400Z/
/X.CON.PAFG.HW.A.0001.070126T0400Z-070126T1500Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
209 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM AST THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
PASSES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 70 MPH THROUGH
THE PASSES AND NEAR HEALY TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING
PRESENTLY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HIGH
WINDS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

AKZ226-260500-
/X.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070126T1500Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
209 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

$$

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 260248
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
548 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

AKZ226-260400-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070126T1500Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
548 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY. THIS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.


$$

AKZ225-261100-
/X.UPG.PAFG.HW.A.0001.070126T0400Z-070126T1500Z/
/X.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070126T2100Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
548 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 65 MPH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN PASSES. 
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT DECREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 260733
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1033 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

AKZ225-261545-
/X.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070126T2100Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
1033 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY. 

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 65 MPH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN PASSES.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT DECREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 261323
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
423 AM AST FRI JAN 26 2007

AKZ225-262130-
/X.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070127T1200Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
423 AM AST FRI JAN 26 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST SATURDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST SATURDAY. 

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 65 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH PASSES. 
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 

$$

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 262013
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1113 AM AST FRI JAN 26 2007

AKZ225-271500-
/X.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070127T1500Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
1113 AM AST FRI JAN 26 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY. 

SOUTH WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 50 MPH IN PASSES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.


$$

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 271121
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 AM AST SAT JAN 27 2007

AKZ225-271230-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070127T1500Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
221 AM AST SAT JAN 27 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS THROUGH PASSES HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 AM AST THU JAN 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOW IRONED OUT.
YESTERDAYS YAKUTAT LOW IS NOW HEADED NORTHEASTWARD...OUT OF THE
YUKON TERRITORY. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR YESTERDAY WITH SOME STATIONS MEASURING WEST
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WERE FINALLY LETTING UP AROUND MIDNIGHT
UP AT EAGLE SUMMIT. SNOWFALL AROUND THE OLD YAKUTAT LOW IS
GRADUALLY ENDING OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC OF
ALASKA.

GENERAL CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR. SO FAR
THE LEADERS IN THIS MORNINGS COLD POOL ARE MCGRATH AND RUSSIAN
MISSION WITH -37F. NOTE THAT THE RUSSIAN MISSION PICKED UP A
LITTLE NORTH BREEZE...WHICH SENT THE MERCURY UP TO -14F IN 2 SHORT
HOURS.

CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN.
THE MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE WEST
ARCTIC WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO CLEAR BECAUSE THE ONSET OF EASTERLY
CLEARING WINDS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

THE LARGE NORTH PACIFIC STORM NOW ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR IS HANDLED SIMILARLY ON THE FORECAST MODELS. IT SHOULD BE
WEAKENING NEAR DALL POINT SATURDAY EVENING. THE WARMING AHEAD OF
IT IS WELL ON COURSE. THE MEDIUM RANGE GFS MODEL LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE TODAY...THE HIGH ALOFT DUE TO BE OVER YAKUTAT ON
TUESDAY IS NOW FORECAST TO BE A MERE 570 DECAMETER CENTER AT 500
MB. THIS IS AT THE HIGH END OF POSSIBILITIES BUT THE SIMILARITY OF
THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECAST LENDS CREDENCE TO IT.

THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AROUND THE NORTH PACIFIC STORM...NOW DUBBED
LOW NUMBER 1...APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE AT GALE STRENGTH BUT NOT
EXTREME. THIS IS TRUE OF THE WEST COAST MARINE FORECASTS AND THE
EXPECTED CHINOOK OVER THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE SOUTH INTERIOR.
WINDS OUT ON THE YUKON DELTA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WHICH HAS A
THRESHOLD VISIBILITY OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS.

THE SUCCESSORS TO LOW NUMBER 1 ARE STILL SUPPOSED TO BE TWO IN
NUMBER...BUT THE DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS ARE MURKY. THE GFS
FORECASTS LOW NUMBER 2 TO REACH DUTCH HARBOR AS A 975 MB CENTER ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL ORIGINS OF THIS EXPECTED SYSTEM ARE
NOT CREDIBLY APPARENT ON THE GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH MEANS
THAT THE FORECAST IS SUSPECT. NUMERICAL MODELS STRUGGLE IN FAST
CHANGING SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS...A RELATIVELY SMALL PERTURBATION
TO THE ANALYSIS CAN GROW INTO A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IN THE
FORECASTS. THE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME FORM OF A DEVELOPING LOW
NEAR 40N 175E...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT IS IN SYNC WITH THIS YET.

LOW NUMBER 3 IN THIS SERIES IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE A 956 MB
STORM JUST WEST OF NIKOLSKI ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOURCE REGION
FOR THIS FORECAST LOW IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR. TO ACCEPT THIS FORECAST
WOULD BE AN ACT OF GREAT FAITH. LOWS NUMBER 2 AND 3 WILL...IF THEY
MATERIALIZE...BRING LOTS OF WIND...PRECIPITATION AND WARMING TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND WARM SOUTH WINDS INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
INDEED...THIS OUTCOME MAY MATERIALIZE...BUT THE DETAILS AND
CAUSATIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS REMAIN TO BE SEEN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTHERLY GALES BERING
STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

TF JAN 07