Storm Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 251238
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
338 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-260315-
338 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST TO EAST JUST INLAND FROM
THE ARCTIC COASTLINE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE FAR NORTH BEAUFORT SEA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO BE JUST WEST OF
BANKS ISLAND MON AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. MODERATE
LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND.

$$

PKZ225-260315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
338 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-260315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
338 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-260315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
338 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-260315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
338 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-260315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
338 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 40 KT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS TO 30 KT.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

TF/DA NOV 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO CLOSED
500MB FEATURES DRIVE THE BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION: A BROAD BAG OF
LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE BERING SEA...AND A HIGH CENTERED JUST
NORTHWEST OF CANADAS BANKS ISLAND. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD
PATTERN ARE NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL
PROGRESS BUSILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT EXPECT NO
CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SINCE THE LOW OVER THE BERING AND
THE HIGH NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND ARE BOTH CUT-OFF FEATURES WHICH
TEND NOT TO MOVE RAPIDLY. AIRMASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD...NOT A
SINGLE SITE HAS REPORTED A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS.

NORTH SLOPE...THERES A TIGHT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THIS IS
BRINGING THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO ZONE 204. OBSERVATIONS AND
NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MAINLY OVER MARINE
AREAS 240 AND 245...ZONE 204 IS THE ONLY LAND AREA WITHIN THE REGION
OF STRONGEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT AT BARTER ISLAND ARE
UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR SUCH A WARM SYSTEM. INVERSIONS ON 12Z RAOBS
AT BARROW AND INUVIK ARE BETWEEN 900MB AND 950MB...PERHAPS THE
INVERSIONS PROVIDE A LID WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN JUST INLAND OF ZONE 204...FUNNEL THE WIND AND PRODUCE AN
ACCELERATION IN ZONE 204 AND MARINE AREA 245. WE WILL EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONE 204 THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER A SHORT
WAVE FEATURE NOW ENHANCING THE GRADIENT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE
AREA...EXPECT WIND SPEEDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC TO DIMINISH
10-20 MPH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE SO WARM THAT WIND CHILL IS NOT
AN ISSUE DURING THIS EVENT. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE NO GOOD
MECHANISM TO PRODUCE NEW SNOWFALL...WHICH MEANS WE ARE LOOKING AT
A HIGH WIND EVENT RATHER THAN A BLIZZARD. WE NEED TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CAREFULLY...BECAUSE IF ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVE FEATURES
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN WE EXPECT IT WONT
TAKE MUCH SNOWFALL TO DROP VISIBILITIES QUICKLY.

WEST COAST...MORE BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH TRANSITING SHORT WAVES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MILD AIR TEMPERATURES MEANS THAT HEAVY
STRUCTURAL ICING IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE MARINE AREAS.

INTERIOR...DUE TO A TRANSITIONING SHORT WAVE...SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT ENDING FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SOME FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THEN THE TREND IS
FOR DRYING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY
DRIFTS IN FROM THE EAST. FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED SPOTS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ204.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ235.
&&

ES NOV 07