Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1218 PM ADT MON SEP 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST US/EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z THU. A 1028 MB HIGH
450 MILES NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA WILL MOVE TO 250
MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT SLAVE LAKE BY 12Z WED.

GFS/NAM VERIFYING VERY WELL ON POSITION OF STORM SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...NEAR 54.0N/174.5E. 18Z POSITION
NOT AVAILABLE FROM ECMWF...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING
VERY WELL ALSO...INTERPOLATING BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z POSITIONS.

PROGGED POSITIONS AND CENTRAL PRESSURES OF STORM IN
THE BERING SEA...

SEP 18/00Z     50.5N/177.5E    960 MB
SEP 18/12Z     54.0N/177.5W    965 MB
SEP 19/00Z     58.0N/175.5W    970 MB
SEP 19/12Z     60.0N/173.0W    975 MB    NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND
SEP 20/00Z     62.0N/169.0W    985 MB    75 MI WEST OF DALL POINT
SEP 20/12Z     63.0N/163.5W    990 MB    NEAR PASTOL BAY

EASTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF PKZ210
THIS EVENING...SPREADING TO ALL OF PKZ210 AND PKZ200 LATE
TONIGHT.

OVER NORTON SOUND...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 KT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A LITTLE TUE AFTERNOON
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF HIGH STORM SURGES. MAXIMUM STORM SURGES ALONG THE
NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE RANGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET MID DAY WED THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS IN NORTON SOUND ARE BE EXPECTED
TO BE 8 TO 9 FEET IN AREAS FROM NOME WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SEAS IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF NORTON SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE LESS...5 TO 8 FEET...DUE TO THE SMALLER FETCH.

IN THE KIVALINA AND RED DOG PORT AREAS...
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE MON
NIGHT AND TO 35 KT TUE MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING A LITTLE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TUE EVENING. MAXIMUM SEAS
OF 8-10 FEET ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH EAST WINDS...
THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. MAXIMUM STORM
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 0.5 FOOT.

RAIN SPREADING TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND-ZONE 214-
SOUTHERN ZONE 212-SOUTHWEST PARTS OF ZONE 215
LATE TONIGHT. BY TUE AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL COVER
ALL WEST COAST AREAS FROM KOTZEBUE SOUTH AND MOST
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. 12-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.5 INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST ZONES AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TUE. FOR TUE NIGHT...12 HOUR
RAILFALLS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH MAY OCCUR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MAXIMUM
24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN ZONES 222-226 OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN GENERAL RISES IN THE LEVELS OF THE LARGER RIVERS.
RIVERS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

RF SEP 07