Small Craft Advisory 90, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM ADT WED SEP 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE FALL PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH
LONG WAVE TROF JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE AND FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 140W. THIS BASIC PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGING
ANYTIME SOON...WITH FREQUENTLY STORMY WEATHER FOR THE WEST COAST
AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

TROUBLESOME BERING SEA LOW JUST SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE MORE PROBLEMS FOR THE VILLAGE OF
KIVALINA AND FOR THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST AS WIND
DIRECTIONS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...THIS WIND SHIFT WILL FOCUS ATTENTION FROM THE SAFETY-
SOLOMON AREA TO THE NOME AREA IN ZONE 211 AND TO KIVALINA IN ZONE 207.

STORM SURGE IN NORTON SOUND WILL BE AROUND 3 FT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH 11 FT WAVES AS FORECAST BY THE AKWAVE MODEL MAY ALLOW SOME
WATER INTO THE BASEMENTS OF BUSINESSES ALONG FRONT STREET BUT WILL
NOT LEAD TO ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE CITY OF NOME
ITSELF...WEST BEACH WILL MOST LIKELY FLOOD AND BELMONT POINT MAY
TAKE ON SOME WATER...THE NOME-COUNCIL ROAD WILL STILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO EROSION AS WELL.

ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE WIND DIRECTION STARTING ON THURSDAY
MORNING TAKES WATER DIRECTLY INTO GOLOVIN BAY. THE GFS BASED STORM
SURGE GRAPHICS RAISE WATER LEVELS NEAR GOLOVIN TO OVER 5 FEET JUST
AFTER NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN WATER LEVELS DROP STEADILY AFTER
NOON AS WIND SPEED DECREASES AND AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES WELL INTO
THE CHUKCHI SEA. EXPECT DAMAGE IN GOLOVIN TO BE LIMITED TO
PROPERTY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORE.

KIVALINA FACES A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT AS THE VILLAGE ONLY NEEDS
A 2 FT RISE IN SURGE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. INTERNAL STORM SURGE
MODELS ADVERTISE AT LEAST A 3 FT RISE IN ADDITION TO 8 FT WAVES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

INTERIOR...CHINOOK WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN ZONE 225 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT ANTLER CREEK BUT THE CHANCE FOR
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH HAS CEASED. GUSTS BEYOND 70 MPH IN ZONE
226 ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF MENTASTA PASS...MAINLY IN AREAS
WHERE WE DO NOT HAVE ANY INSTRUMENTS TO MEASURE THEM...BUT A
ROGUE GUST OR TWO NEAR TEXAS CONDO IS POSSIBLE...AND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN DELTA JUNCTION/FORT GREELEY AREA
INTO THIS EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG CHINOOK ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ISABEL PASS AREA SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION. COOLING AMS POST-
FRONTALLY WILL ALLOW RHS TO RISE 30 PERCENT TONIGHT. WARM AMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW MIN RHS TODAY TO DROP TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER THE UPPER YUKON AND UPPER TANANA VALLEYS.
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TONIGHT AND THU WILL RESULT IN MIN RHS ABOVE
40 PERCENT MOST AREAS THU EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

KS SEP 07